Developers holding back some launches? Why?
Buyers are scarce, investors have vanished. Developers have no confidence of selling at the prices they would love to. Conclusion? Just delay some projects that are ready for market. That's not a problem for most developers as they are extremely well positioned, financially.
The number of homes that could be launched for sale immediately, but have been held back, has increased to 10,239 in the first quarter of 2008, an increase of 44.2 per cent over the 7,099 units in the fourth quarter of last year. This, perhaps, is a reflection of the standoff between developers and buyers.
The Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) indicated that there were 2,526 homes launched, but unsold at the end of the Q1 of 2008, an increase of 22.4% over the previous quarter. PropertyBingo Data Consultant Danny Lim commented; ‘The peak in June 2007 will never be repeated in a long while. There were more than 4700 private transactions, excluding option tradings. In March 2008, we only had less than 800. That's a huge drop in activities and sentiment. It's impossible for the developers to maintain their optimism in setting high margins. However, the mass market will still see some demand for any projects marketing below the $1000psf psychological barrier.’ The 405-unit Waterfront Waves is a good example. Selling at $800 psf, they sold more than 100 units.
According to URA, prices of private residential property increased by 3.7% in Q1 2008 compared to 6.8% in the previous quarter. A few units from existing projects were known to have been sold at above $3,300 psf in Q1 2008, with several units in Marina Collection sold at above $2,600 psf. However, price increases do not mean high demand. As noted by Danny, there were many properties still asking for higher prices as compared to 2007. The Sail, for example, recorded an average of 250-300 sellers but only 5 sold in March.
URA said that the last time the flash estimate of the change in private residential property price index (PPI) was revised downwards by more than 0.5% points was in Q4 2001, when it was pegged downwards by 1.4 percentage points. Take-up rate for Outside Central Region was only 38% whereas the Core Central Region and Rest of Central Region reported healthier take-up rate of 89% and 71% respectively.
The disappearance of speculators from the market may have also dampened sales, as reflected by the lower number of subsales at just 346 transactions, down from 649 in the previous quarter. Subsale prices, however, remained stable, suggesting that panic selling for the time being at least is unlikely. But agents handling projects commented that sellers are less resilent on their asking prices.
URA projects that 56,501 units are expected to be completed between Q2 2008 and 2011, of which 29,685 units are already under construction. The fact remains that developers are able to control their "releases" of units and projects to the market, thus preventing an avalanche of panic selling. Developers can easily cut down supplies during a period of low buying sentiment and maintain their asking prices for a long time.
"This, effectively, helps resellers to maintain reasonable asking prices and not a huge discount. However, for properties fully sold by developers, the players are the resellers." said Danny. At least for now, we don't expect panic selling.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Singapore Property News Summary 02
US sub-par growth in US will slow down Singapore
Standard Chartered Bank sees challenges for the Singapore economy this year. It says growth may be weighed down by the sub-par growth in the US economy, as well as a sharp slowdown in other developed economies. The British lender has cut its growth projections for Singapore's economy from 5.7 percent to 4.5 percent. This is at the low end of the government's official 4.5 to 6.5 percent range. Cargo ships will still chug along this year, taking Singapore products overseas. But Standard Chartered says easing global demand will see exports slow down further, with spillover effects on sectors linked to trade, such as logistics.
The last time the US economy stagnated in 2001, Singapore went into a recession. However, things may not be as bad this time. Tai Hui, Regional Economic Research Head, Southeast Asia, Standard Chartered, says: "Compared to 2001 when the Singapore economy did go into a recession, the factors are much more positive now. "You have consumption pattern positive, investment sentiment remaining strong. The domestic demand side of the story this time is much more favourable for the Singapore economy, and that's one reason why we expect the growth to moderate and not plunge." Singapore's key growth drivers include the services and construction sectors.
StanChart also expects inflation to hit around 4 percent for the full year, most of it to come in the first half. Tai Hui says: "I think food prices and energy prices will be some of the external factors pushing inflation higher in Singapore. Domestic demand is again very robust. That could give retailers more room to price themselves for profit. Property prices again will be a positive factor driving inflation higher." Also expected to be higher is the Singapore dollar when compared to its US counterpart, which may temper imported inflation. However, StanChart sees other domestic prices pressures like rentals and wages. But it believes there may be some government measures to moderate the increases.
Marina Bay Suites - invulnerable to slow market?
Marina Bay Suites is seeing strong demand despite uncertainty in the market, according to its marketing agents. Both CB Richard Ellis and DTZ Debenham Tie Leung say they've received significant numbers of enquiries from both local and foreign buyers. What goes up may not necessarily come down, even in these uncertain times.
Demand for these luxury apartment units overlooking Marina Bay seems almost immune to external shocks. Ong Choon Fah, Executive Director and Regional Head, Consulting and Research, DTZ Debenham Tie Leung (SEA), said: "The top end of the market is like your blue chip stocks. When the market recovers they're the ones that run first, the price recovery is the fastest. But when the market comes down, a lot of them don't need to sell, so activity may come down but we find there's very good price support." Joseph Tan, Executive Director - Residential, CB Richard Ellis, said: "This is likely to be probably one of the last sites that has views of the Bay so in any property purchase situation, it's still location, location, location."
According to Raffles Quay Asset Management, the prevailing market rate for the Marina area is between S$3,000 and S$4,000 per square foot. And it remains bullish about the capital appreciation from residential units there. Kan Kum Wah, Marketing Head - Residential, Raffles Quay Asset Management, said: "You can see from the first phase of Marina Bay Residences, the price has moved between 25 percent and 75 percent as of today, and we believe that based on the current strong economy, we'll be growing in tandem or even outperform." Each unit in Marina Bay Suites comes with its own private lift lobby and there are just four units per floor. The apartments range from 1,600 to 2,700 square feet in area each. The development also includes three penthouse units, ranging from 4,700 to over 8,100 square feet each. Selected buyer previews for all 221 units will be held later this month.
For more resale value around Marina Bay, check out asking prices of units at www.PropertyBingo.com
Leedon Heights owners may get a breather for extended stay
Property developer GuocoLand is considering allowing former owners of Leedon Heights condominium in District 10 to continue staying on in their units for a limited period of time. This is a goodwill gesture at the request of some residents of the development who want more time to find replacement units. The 23-year-old Leedon Heights, off Farrer Road, was sold to GuocoLand in a collective sale last year for S$835 million.
Together with a S$40 million development charge, the price works out to S$1,062 per square foot per plot ratio. Some owners said they had asked for more time to vacate their units while they looked for replacement units. Karamjit Singh, Credo's managing director, said: "Well, most developers prefer to get on with their demolition construction so as to be able to market their projects. Usually, contractually, owners are allowed up to six months (to vacate their units). "Recently, what some developers with large projects have done is to build showflats within the large land areas at an obscure corner that allows existing occupants to stay on in the units while the new projects are being marketed." This appears to be what GuocoLand may do as well.
Responding to queries from Channel NewsAsia, GuocoLand said it believes that the land parcel is large enough for it to undertake its marketing initiatives for the new development, without inconveniencing the residents. As such, it is considering the request to allow Leedon Heights residents to remain in their homes for a limited period. Leedon Heights sits on a land area of about 48,500 square metres with a plot ratio of 1.6, which can accommodate buildings of up to 12 storeys. Nicholas Mak, director of Knight Frank, said: "It's very unusual for developers to lease back to their owners, after the collective sale.
The reason is because the developers are buying the site only for redevelopment. "For developers to do that - I think that has happened before, during the Asian financial crises - it would usually mean that the developer feels that the market, the primary sales market, is rather weak and is not ready to support the kind of selling price that they have in mind." According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), there were almost 65,400 private residential units in the pipeline last September. Of these, 41,600 are slated to be completed between this year and 2010.
S$929.5m payout to Ascott owners
CapitaLand Ltd. offered at least S$929.5 million ($648 million) to buy out minority owners of Ascott Group Ltd., after shares in Asia's biggest operator of serviced apartments fell 40 percent over the past eight months. CapitaLand, which owns 67 percent of Ascott, will pay S$1.73 a share to take the company private, the Singapore-based developer said in a statement to the stock exchange.
That values the unit at S$2.78 billion, 43 percent higher than its market worth Jan. 4 before the stock was suspended yesterday. ``Ascott was a severely undervalued stock,'' said Wilson Liew, an analyst with Kim Eng Securities Pte in Singapore. ``Going by the business model of CapitaLand, it does make sense as it allows them greater ease to carry out transactions such as sales of assets.''
CapitaLand, Southeast Asia's largest developer, more than tripled profit in the first nine months of last year as Singapore property values rose and the company built more houses in China. Ascott, Singapore's second-worst performing property stock in 2007, suffered a drop in net income as development costs rose.
Buying Ascott, the biggest operator of serviced apartments in Asia and Europe, will let CapitaLand strengthen ties between the companies' fund and property trust businesses, the developer said in the statement. Ascott, which was suspended yesterday, climbed 3.4 percent to S$1.21 in Singapore on Jan. 4. The shares dropped 18 percent in 2007, a year when the Singapore Property Equities Index advanced 9.3 percent.
CapitaLand, which was also halted from trading, gained 1.1 percent last year and last closed at S$6.25, valuing the developer at S$17.5 billion. ``There's an underlying tone that suggests CapitaLand is very bullish on the hospitality sector,'' Liew said. ``Going into 2008 and 2009, tourism figures in Singapore as well as internationally are expected to remain strong.'' DBS Bank Ltd. is advising CapitaLand on its bid, which also includes an offer to buy stock options for 17.1 million new shares in Ascott. CapitaLand will pay for the purchase through bank borrowings and internal funds, the developer said.
CapitaLand had S$2 billion of cash as of Dec. 31 and will be able to fund the takeover, brokerage DBS Vickers said in a research note today. The developer also agreed to borrow S$600 million for the deal, DBS Vickers said. ``If privatized, cost efficiency would result from greater sharing of services and resources with CapitaLand's other unlisted strategic business units,'' the company said. ``CapitaLand and Ascott will be able to fully integrate their fund and REIT management businesses to increase operational benefits and cost savings.''
Ascott has more than 19,500 rooms in serviced-residence units in 23 countries, including fast-growing economies China, India and Russia. The apartment manager posted a S$34.1 million profit in the third quarter of last year. CapitaLand, which is also one of Singapore's biggest landlords of retail and office space, reported 2007 third-quarter net income of S$563.9 million. Ascott Group sold shares in its first property trust, Ascott Residence Trust, in 2006. CapitaLand will not be making an offer for Ascott Residence.
Are China Property Bonds attractive?
Bonds of China's Agile Property Holdings Ltd. yield 7.17 percentage points more than U.S. Treasuries, double the premium in July and 1.79 percentage points more than the debt of Los Angeles-based KB Home, which has the same credit ratings. Agile, a housing developer in the southern province of Guangdong, and Country Garden Holdings Co., China's most-profitable builder, canceled debt sales in November when borrowing costs climbed. As China's government attempts to cool property prices with limits on lending, developers are in a land grab. Li, who made his fortune in Hong Kong real estate, Chinese billionaire Xu Rongmao, who owns Shimao Property Holdings Ltd., and hundreds of local developers boosted investment 29 percent in the first eight months of 2007, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
``If the government decides to impose further restrictions, most if not all of the developers will go bankrupt, depending on the severity of the restrictions,'' said Eugene Kim, chief investment officer of Hong Kong-based Tribridge Investment Partners Ltd., a $200 million hedge fund. ``That makes us very selective in terms of which bonds we buy and the spreads we require to compensate for risk.'' Kim said he has trades set up that would profit from a decline in prices. New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co., the world's biggest brokerage, rates China property companies ``underweight,'' meaning investors should own a smaller percentage of the debt than contained in benchmark indexes.
Home prices in Shenzhen, a city north of Hong Kong, were 18.6 percent higher in November than a year earlier, according to a National Development and Reform Commission survey. They rose 14.9 percent in the capital city of Beijing and 16.4 percent in Beihai, in Guangxi province. The People's Bank of China last month raised its benchmark one-year lending rate to a nine-year high and increased reserve requirements to the most since at least 1998. The government increased the minimum down payments on apartments to 40 percent from 30 percent in September.
Signs of a shift are already emerging. The nation's largest publicly traded developer, Shenzhen-based China Vanke Co., sold property worth 4.23 billion yuan ($582 million) in November, 18 percent less than in October.
Chinese developers are among the most vulnerable of any group in Asia to downgrades because a slowdown in home sales would deplete cash, said Clara Lau, an analyst at Moody's Investors Service in Hong Kong. ``They have been growing aggressively, with the view that if they don't buy now, it will be more expensive for them later'' to acquire land, Lau said. Standard & Poor's cut the credit ratings of Greentown China Holdings Ltd., the largest builder in Zhejiang province, one level to BB- on Dec. 3 due to ``increasingly aggressive land acquisitions.'' Its $400 million of 9 percent bonds yield 11.2 percent, up from 9.6 percent in November.
The risk of Shimao and Agile defaulting on their debt rose to a record today, credit-default swaps show. The cost of protecting the bonds of Shimao and Agile against default increased by as much as 80 basis points, the contracts' biggest rise, to 560 basis points and 650 basis points, respectively, at 5:13 p.m. in Hong Kong, according to BNP Paribas SA. Each basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, on a contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years adds $1,000 to the annual cost.
Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. Bond sales by developers rated at least BB, or one to three levels below investment grade, may rise 10-fold to more than $15 billion, Todd Schubert, a Singapore-based credit analyst at Deutsche Bank AG, said in a Dec. 7 report. Developers issued $1.4 billion of dollar-denominated debt in 2007, compared with about $5.5 billion from their U.S. counterparts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
``Each company knows that the window of opportunity is small and they want to be the one to fit through the window,'' Schubert said in the report. Agile pulled a $400 million debt sale in November after its borrowing costs surged to a record. The spread on the company's $400 million of 9 percent debentures due September 2013 widened to 7.17 percentage points from 3.23 percentage points on July 2. That caused the value of the bonds to fall 10 percent.
The premium on $250 million of 5.75 percent notes maturing February 2014 by KB Home, the fifth-largest U.S. homebuilder, rose to 5.38 percentage points from 2.41 percentage points, representing a loss of 5.9 percent. Agile and KB are rated BB by S&P. After reaching a peak of 1.389 million in July 2005, sales of new homes in the U.S. fell to an annual pace of 647,000 in November, a 12-year low, as discounts failed to lure buyers and mounting foreclosures swelled the glut of unsold properties, according to the Commerce Department.
Higher borrowing costs haven't stopped developers betting China's economy, which expanded 11.5 percent in the quarter ended September from a year earlier, will continue to support the housing market. ``Demand in China is huge,'' said Met Luk, a deputy general manager of Agile. ``Together with improvement in the economy, a lot of people are looking for a better living environment.'' Agile said it will add at least 2 million square meters (21.5 million square feet) of land this year. Country Garden Holdings Co., based in Foshan, Guangdong, tripled its land for development to 51.9 million square meters between April and August, according to an Oct. 29 Moody's report.
Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd., the property company controlled by Li, added at least 3 million square meters in the first half of last year, more than triple the acquisitions in all of 2006, its annual report shows. Li hasn't relied on debt to fund purchases in China. ``2008 will be a good year for investing in the property market in China,'' Justin Chiu, executive director of Cheung Kong, Hong Kong's second-biggest developer by market value, said in an e-mail.
China real estate investments by Cheung Kong and Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., Li's largest company, were at a ``historic high'' of more than HK$10 billion ($1.3 billion), and ``would rise,'' Li said in 2006. His net worth is estimated at $23 billion by Forbes magazine. The 79-year-old has a history of overcoming long odds to succeed. Li closed an unprofitable U.K. mobile phone operator called Rabbit in 1993. He returned a year later to start Orange Plc, which he sold in 1999 at a $15 billion profit.
Developers such as Cheung Kong and Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., Hong Kong's biggest, ``have been relatively prudent,'' said Hugh Young, a managing director at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd. in Singapore who oversees $50 billion. ``I don't think they just close their eyes and plunge all their money in China.'' Bondholders, wary that developers are too optimistic, say what happened in the U.S. last year and Japan in the 1990s may be repeated in China.
More than 100 U.S. mortgage lenders were shuttered, scaled back or sold in 2007 as the rate of foreclosures rose to the highest on record and home sales tumbled, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In 1998, the Japanese government had to put 13.4 trillion yen ($122 billion) into public works as the fallout from a real estate slump lingered. In China, a housing slump may trigger more defaults because banking laws are still being written and a consumer credit rating system doesn't exist, said Yi Xianrong, a finance specialist at the government-backed Chinese Academy of Social Sciences research institute in Beijing. China's National Audit Office said in June it uncovered irregularities involving 15.6 billion yuan of loans in the 2005 results of three of the nation's largest banks. ``We will not know how big this problem is as long as property prices continue to rise,'' Yi said.
What's up for Vietnam's real estate market?
Singaporean businesses are showing their interest in the real estate market in Viet Nam, considering this to be a promising market. “As the political situation is stable and the economy has experienced growth for many consecutive years, the Vietnamese people are getting richer and their demand for housing is high. I suppose this is a potential market,” said Edwin Yu Kwok Kam, Director of the IMC Industrial and Property Investment Company. Edwin said at the Investment Opportunities in Viet Nam forum, which opened in Ha Noi on January 9, that the demand for housing will continue rising in Viet Nam where the property market is in short of supply.
Statistics released at the forum indicated an imbalance between the demand and the supply of apartment and office for rent. In the Ha Noi capital city, almost all apartment and office building projects report an occupancy rate of more than 95 percent. According to the real estate service provider, CB Richard Ellis (CBRE), Ha Noi has 4,924 hotel rooms rated at 3 - 5 stars and the figure remains modest as compared with 20,000 hotels in Bangkok .
Ho Jiann Ching, business development manager from the Ayala International Holdings Ltd. said he has seen a big opportunity in Viet Nam and believed that once entering the market, foreign businesses would be successful. Singapore now ranks second among foreign investors in Viet Nam , with 500 projects, capitalised at 9.7 billion USD.
Dang Dung – Vice President of the Ha Noi Association of Young Entrepreneurs (HAYE)– said almost all Singaporean projects are invested by multi-national groups. Small Singaporean firms, which have capital ranging between 1 and 10 million USD, are yet to come to Viet Nam.
UK property market predicted to continue falling
The UK commercial property market, battered throughout 2007 by falling values, is set to suffer more bad news this week with the publication of the UK annual property index from consultants IPD. Experts who follow the much-anticipated index are confidently predicting that it will show a slump of 15pc in the capital value of UK property from June, when values peaked, including a 4pc to 5pc fall in December alone, revealing that the second half of 2007 was one of the worst in recent memory.
Taking 2007 as a whole, capital values are thought to have slumped 10pc. The pain being felt by property investors has been reflected in the falling share prices of leading UK property companies such as British Land and Land Securities, which have dropped 45pc and 36pc respectively over the past 12 months. The only relief has come from a 5pc uplift in rental income over the 12-month period, which will mean the total return from property in 2007 - capital value plus rental income - will see a fall of 5pc.
However, although last year proved bad news for investors, this year is set to be worse. Paul Bacon, the chief executive of Cushman & Wakefield, the leading property advisers, said: "The big story is that since June capital values have fallen 15pc but for how long is that going to continue? We will see another 10pc fall in the first three to six months of this year. "We had a very, very significant sell-off in the last quarter. At the moment a lot of people are saying, 'This is a buying opportunity, this is the moment to start seriously looking.' " The sell-off in the property sector was highlighted last week when it emerged that the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation had amassed a 3pc stake in British Land.
URA releases flash 4th Quarter 2007 Private Residential Property Price Index
The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released today the flash estimate of the price index of private residential property for 4th Quarter 2007. Based on the estimated price index of private residential property, prices rose from 160.0 points in the 3rd Quarter 2007 to 170.5 points in the 4th Quarter 2007. This represents an increase of 6.6%, compared with the 8.3% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A)1. For the year 2007 as a whole, the price index rose 31.0%.
URA also released today the flash estimates of the price changes in the three geographical regions for 4th Quarter 2007. Prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 7.0% in Core Central Region, 7.3% in Rest of Central Region and 7.5% in Outside Central Region in the quarter (see Annex B). In comparison, for 3rd Quarter 2007, prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 8.3% in Core Central Region, 7.9% in Rest of Central Region and 7.9% in Outside Central Region.
The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold. The statistics will be updated four weeks later when URA releases the full 4th Quarter 2007 real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured. Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.
The Government will continue to monitor prices closely and release relevant price sensitive information in a timely manner. On the supply side, as at 3rd Quarter 2007, there are about 65,400 private residential units in the pipeline, of which about 41,600 new private housing units are expected to be completed between 2008 and 2010. About 38,000 units of the supply in the pipeline (or 58%) have not been sold by developers yet. This does not take into account new sites that will be made available for development through the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme. Prospective home-buyers are advised to take into consideration the ample pipeline supply of private housing, as well as the potential supply from GLS sites, when making decisions on property purchase.
Just a reminder on 2007 3rd Qtr release
Supply in the Pipeline
As at the end of 3rd Quarter 2007, there was a total supply of 65,406 uncompleted units of private housing from projects in the pipeline5 , about 16.4% higher than the 56,182 units as at the end of the previous quarter (see Annex F). Of these 65,406 units, 38,013 units were still unsold. These comprised 1,897 units that had been launched for sale by developers and 6,546 units which had the pre-requisite conditions for sale and could be launched for sale immediately. The remaining 29,570 units with planning approvals did not have the pre-requisite conditions for sale.
However, the pre-requisite approvals for sale, ie sale license from the Controller of Housing and Building Plan approval from the Building and Construction Authority (BCA) could be obtained quite quickly and these units could be made available for sale quite soon, if the developers choose to do so6 (see Annex C-1).
Of the 65,406 units, about 44,484 units are expected to be completed between the 4th Quarter of 2007 and 20107 . Construction has commenced for almost all the units scheduled for completion up to 2008. About 48% of the units that are expected to be completed in 2009 and 2010 are already under construction, while the remaining units not under construction yet can be completed as scheduled8. Details of the supply in the pipeline in the 3 locations are given in Annex C-2.
In addition, more supply will also come from the sites made available by the Government in the 2H2007 Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme, which can yield about 8,000 new units. When sold, the supply from these sites can be made available for sale within the next one year or so. The Government will also make additional supply available in the 1H2008 GLS Programme if necessary.
Apart from the additional supply from GLS sites, there will also be additional supply from new private residential developments on private land which will be coming in for planning approval, including those on sites where the existing developments have been sold en-bloc. This will further increase the number of units that can be made available for sale in the next few years.
Standard Chartered Bank sees challenges for the Singapore economy this year. It says growth may be weighed down by the sub-par growth in the US economy, as well as a sharp slowdown in other developed economies. The British lender has cut its growth projections for Singapore's economy from 5.7 percent to 4.5 percent. This is at the low end of the government's official 4.5 to 6.5 percent range. Cargo ships will still chug along this year, taking Singapore products overseas. But Standard Chartered says easing global demand will see exports slow down further, with spillover effects on sectors linked to trade, such as logistics.
The last time the US economy stagnated in 2001, Singapore went into a recession. However, things may not be as bad this time. Tai Hui, Regional Economic Research Head, Southeast Asia, Standard Chartered, says: "Compared to 2001 when the Singapore economy did go into a recession, the factors are much more positive now. "You have consumption pattern positive, investment sentiment remaining strong. The domestic demand side of the story this time is much more favourable for the Singapore economy, and that's one reason why we expect the growth to moderate and not plunge." Singapore's key growth drivers include the services and construction sectors.
StanChart also expects inflation to hit around 4 percent for the full year, most of it to come in the first half. Tai Hui says: "I think food prices and energy prices will be some of the external factors pushing inflation higher in Singapore. Domestic demand is again very robust. That could give retailers more room to price themselves for profit. Property prices again will be a positive factor driving inflation higher." Also expected to be higher is the Singapore dollar when compared to its US counterpart, which may temper imported inflation. However, StanChart sees other domestic prices pressures like rentals and wages. But it believes there may be some government measures to moderate the increases.
Marina Bay Suites - invulnerable to slow market?
Marina Bay Suites is seeing strong demand despite uncertainty in the market, according to its marketing agents. Both CB Richard Ellis and DTZ Debenham Tie Leung say they've received significant numbers of enquiries from both local and foreign buyers. What goes up may not necessarily come down, even in these uncertain times.
Demand for these luxury apartment units overlooking Marina Bay seems almost immune to external shocks. Ong Choon Fah, Executive Director and Regional Head, Consulting and Research, DTZ Debenham Tie Leung (SEA), said: "The top end of the market is like your blue chip stocks. When the market recovers they're the ones that run first, the price recovery is the fastest. But when the market comes down, a lot of them don't need to sell, so activity may come down but we find there's very good price support." Joseph Tan, Executive Director - Residential, CB Richard Ellis, said: "This is likely to be probably one of the last sites that has views of the Bay so in any property purchase situation, it's still location, location, location."
According to Raffles Quay Asset Management, the prevailing market rate for the Marina area is between S$3,000 and S$4,000 per square foot. And it remains bullish about the capital appreciation from residential units there. Kan Kum Wah, Marketing Head - Residential, Raffles Quay Asset Management, said: "You can see from the first phase of Marina Bay Residences, the price has moved between 25 percent and 75 percent as of today, and we believe that based on the current strong economy, we'll be growing in tandem or even outperform." Each unit in Marina Bay Suites comes with its own private lift lobby and there are just four units per floor. The apartments range from 1,600 to 2,700 square feet in area each. The development also includes three penthouse units, ranging from 4,700 to over 8,100 square feet each. Selected buyer previews for all 221 units will be held later this month.
For more resale value around Marina Bay, check out asking prices of units at www.PropertyBingo.com
Leedon Heights owners may get a breather for extended stay
Property developer GuocoLand is considering allowing former owners of Leedon Heights condominium in District 10 to continue staying on in their units for a limited period of time. This is a goodwill gesture at the request of some residents of the development who want more time to find replacement units. The 23-year-old Leedon Heights, off Farrer Road, was sold to GuocoLand in a collective sale last year for S$835 million.
Together with a S$40 million development charge, the price works out to S$1,062 per square foot per plot ratio. Some owners said they had asked for more time to vacate their units while they looked for replacement units. Karamjit Singh, Credo's managing director, said: "Well, most developers prefer to get on with their demolition construction so as to be able to market their projects. Usually, contractually, owners are allowed up to six months (to vacate their units). "Recently, what some developers with large projects have done is to build showflats within the large land areas at an obscure corner that allows existing occupants to stay on in the units while the new projects are being marketed." This appears to be what GuocoLand may do as well.
Responding to queries from Channel NewsAsia, GuocoLand said it believes that the land parcel is large enough for it to undertake its marketing initiatives for the new development, without inconveniencing the residents. As such, it is considering the request to allow Leedon Heights residents to remain in their homes for a limited period. Leedon Heights sits on a land area of about 48,500 square metres with a plot ratio of 1.6, which can accommodate buildings of up to 12 storeys. Nicholas Mak, director of Knight Frank, said: "It's very unusual for developers to lease back to their owners, after the collective sale.
The reason is because the developers are buying the site only for redevelopment. "For developers to do that - I think that has happened before, during the Asian financial crises - it would usually mean that the developer feels that the market, the primary sales market, is rather weak and is not ready to support the kind of selling price that they have in mind." According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), there were almost 65,400 private residential units in the pipeline last September. Of these, 41,600 are slated to be completed between this year and 2010.
S$929.5m payout to Ascott owners
CapitaLand Ltd. offered at least S$929.5 million ($648 million) to buy out minority owners of Ascott Group Ltd., after shares in Asia's biggest operator of serviced apartments fell 40 percent over the past eight months. CapitaLand, which owns 67 percent of Ascott, will pay S$1.73 a share to take the company private, the Singapore-based developer said in a statement to the stock exchange.
That values the unit at S$2.78 billion, 43 percent higher than its market worth Jan. 4 before the stock was suspended yesterday. ``Ascott was a severely undervalued stock,'' said Wilson Liew, an analyst with Kim Eng Securities Pte in Singapore. ``Going by the business model of CapitaLand, it does make sense as it allows them greater ease to carry out transactions such as sales of assets.''
CapitaLand, Southeast Asia's largest developer, more than tripled profit in the first nine months of last year as Singapore property values rose and the company built more houses in China. Ascott, Singapore's second-worst performing property stock in 2007, suffered a drop in net income as development costs rose.
Buying Ascott, the biggest operator of serviced apartments in Asia and Europe, will let CapitaLand strengthen ties between the companies' fund and property trust businesses, the developer said in the statement. Ascott, which was suspended yesterday, climbed 3.4 percent to S$1.21 in Singapore on Jan. 4. The shares dropped 18 percent in 2007, a year when the Singapore Property Equities Index advanced 9.3 percent.
CapitaLand, which was also halted from trading, gained 1.1 percent last year and last closed at S$6.25, valuing the developer at S$17.5 billion. ``There's an underlying tone that suggests CapitaLand is very bullish on the hospitality sector,'' Liew said. ``Going into 2008 and 2009, tourism figures in Singapore as well as internationally are expected to remain strong.'' DBS Bank Ltd. is advising CapitaLand on its bid, which also includes an offer to buy stock options for 17.1 million new shares in Ascott. CapitaLand will pay for the purchase through bank borrowings and internal funds, the developer said.
CapitaLand had S$2 billion of cash as of Dec. 31 and will be able to fund the takeover, brokerage DBS Vickers said in a research note today. The developer also agreed to borrow S$600 million for the deal, DBS Vickers said. ``If privatized, cost efficiency would result from greater sharing of services and resources with CapitaLand's other unlisted strategic business units,'' the company said. ``CapitaLand and Ascott will be able to fully integrate their fund and REIT management businesses to increase operational benefits and cost savings.''
Ascott has more than 19,500 rooms in serviced-residence units in 23 countries, including fast-growing economies China, India and Russia. The apartment manager posted a S$34.1 million profit in the third quarter of last year. CapitaLand, which is also one of Singapore's biggest landlords of retail and office space, reported 2007 third-quarter net income of S$563.9 million. Ascott Group sold shares in its first property trust, Ascott Residence Trust, in 2006. CapitaLand will not be making an offer for Ascott Residence.
Are China Property Bonds attractive?
Bonds of China's Agile Property Holdings Ltd. yield 7.17 percentage points more than U.S. Treasuries, double the premium in July and 1.79 percentage points more than the debt of Los Angeles-based KB Home, which has the same credit ratings. Agile, a housing developer in the southern province of Guangdong, and Country Garden Holdings Co., China's most-profitable builder, canceled debt sales in November when borrowing costs climbed. As China's government attempts to cool property prices with limits on lending, developers are in a land grab. Li, who made his fortune in Hong Kong real estate, Chinese billionaire Xu Rongmao, who owns Shimao Property Holdings Ltd., and hundreds of local developers boosted investment 29 percent in the first eight months of 2007, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
``If the government decides to impose further restrictions, most if not all of the developers will go bankrupt, depending on the severity of the restrictions,'' said Eugene Kim, chief investment officer of Hong Kong-based Tribridge Investment Partners Ltd., a $200 million hedge fund. ``That makes us very selective in terms of which bonds we buy and the spreads we require to compensate for risk.'' Kim said he has trades set up that would profit from a decline in prices. New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co., the world's biggest brokerage, rates China property companies ``underweight,'' meaning investors should own a smaller percentage of the debt than contained in benchmark indexes.
Home prices in Shenzhen, a city north of Hong Kong, were 18.6 percent higher in November than a year earlier, according to a National Development and Reform Commission survey. They rose 14.9 percent in the capital city of Beijing and 16.4 percent in Beihai, in Guangxi province. The People's Bank of China last month raised its benchmark one-year lending rate to a nine-year high and increased reserve requirements to the most since at least 1998. The government increased the minimum down payments on apartments to 40 percent from 30 percent in September.
Signs of a shift are already emerging. The nation's largest publicly traded developer, Shenzhen-based China Vanke Co., sold property worth 4.23 billion yuan ($582 million) in November, 18 percent less than in October.
Chinese developers are among the most vulnerable of any group in Asia to downgrades because a slowdown in home sales would deplete cash, said Clara Lau, an analyst at Moody's Investors Service in Hong Kong. ``They have been growing aggressively, with the view that if they don't buy now, it will be more expensive for them later'' to acquire land, Lau said. Standard & Poor's cut the credit ratings of Greentown China Holdings Ltd., the largest builder in Zhejiang province, one level to BB- on Dec. 3 due to ``increasingly aggressive land acquisitions.'' Its $400 million of 9 percent bonds yield 11.2 percent, up from 9.6 percent in November.
The risk of Shimao and Agile defaulting on their debt rose to a record today, credit-default swaps show. The cost of protecting the bonds of Shimao and Agile against default increased by as much as 80 basis points, the contracts' biggest rise, to 560 basis points and 650 basis points, respectively, at 5:13 p.m. in Hong Kong, according to BNP Paribas SA. Each basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, on a contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years adds $1,000 to the annual cost.
Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. Bond sales by developers rated at least BB, or one to three levels below investment grade, may rise 10-fold to more than $15 billion, Todd Schubert, a Singapore-based credit analyst at Deutsche Bank AG, said in a Dec. 7 report. Developers issued $1.4 billion of dollar-denominated debt in 2007, compared with about $5.5 billion from their U.S. counterparts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
``Each company knows that the window of opportunity is small and they want to be the one to fit through the window,'' Schubert said in the report. Agile pulled a $400 million debt sale in November after its borrowing costs surged to a record. The spread on the company's $400 million of 9 percent debentures due September 2013 widened to 7.17 percentage points from 3.23 percentage points on July 2. That caused the value of the bonds to fall 10 percent.
The premium on $250 million of 5.75 percent notes maturing February 2014 by KB Home, the fifth-largest U.S. homebuilder, rose to 5.38 percentage points from 2.41 percentage points, representing a loss of 5.9 percent. Agile and KB are rated BB by S&P. After reaching a peak of 1.389 million in July 2005, sales of new homes in the U.S. fell to an annual pace of 647,000 in November, a 12-year low, as discounts failed to lure buyers and mounting foreclosures swelled the glut of unsold properties, according to the Commerce Department.
Higher borrowing costs haven't stopped developers betting China's economy, which expanded 11.5 percent in the quarter ended September from a year earlier, will continue to support the housing market. ``Demand in China is huge,'' said Met Luk, a deputy general manager of Agile. ``Together with improvement in the economy, a lot of people are looking for a better living environment.'' Agile said it will add at least 2 million square meters (21.5 million square feet) of land this year. Country Garden Holdings Co., based in Foshan, Guangdong, tripled its land for development to 51.9 million square meters between April and August, according to an Oct. 29 Moody's report.
Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd., the property company controlled by Li, added at least 3 million square meters in the first half of last year, more than triple the acquisitions in all of 2006, its annual report shows. Li hasn't relied on debt to fund purchases in China. ``2008 will be a good year for investing in the property market in China,'' Justin Chiu, executive director of Cheung Kong, Hong Kong's second-biggest developer by market value, said in an e-mail.
China real estate investments by Cheung Kong and Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., Li's largest company, were at a ``historic high'' of more than HK$10 billion ($1.3 billion), and ``would rise,'' Li said in 2006. His net worth is estimated at $23 billion by Forbes magazine. The 79-year-old has a history of overcoming long odds to succeed. Li closed an unprofitable U.K. mobile phone operator called Rabbit in 1993. He returned a year later to start Orange Plc, which he sold in 1999 at a $15 billion profit.
Developers such as Cheung Kong and Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., Hong Kong's biggest, ``have been relatively prudent,'' said Hugh Young, a managing director at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd. in Singapore who oversees $50 billion. ``I don't think they just close their eyes and plunge all their money in China.'' Bondholders, wary that developers are too optimistic, say what happened in the U.S. last year and Japan in the 1990s may be repeated in China.
More than 100 U.S. mortgage lenders were shuttered, scaled back or sold in 2007 as the rate of foreclosures rose to the highest on record and home sales tumbled, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In 1998, the Japanese government had to put 13.4 trillion yen ($122 billion) into public works as the fallout from a real estate slump lingered. In China, a housing slump may trigger more defaults because banking laws are still being written and a consumer credit rating system doesn't exist, said Yi Xianrong, a finance specialist at the government-backed Chinese Academy of Social Sciences research institute in Beijing. China's National Audit Office said in June it uncovered irregularities involving 15.6 billion yuan of loans in the 2005 results of three of the nation's largest banks. ``We will not know how big this problem is as long as property prices continue to rise,'' Yi said.
What's up for Vietnam's real estate market?
Singaporean businesses are showing their interest in the real estate market in Viet Nam, considering this to be a promising market. “As the political situation is stable and the economy has experienced growth for many consecutive years, the Vietnamese people are getting richer and their demand for housing is high. I suppose this is a potential market,” said Edwin Yu Kwok Kam, Director of the IMC Industrial and Property Investment Company. Edwin said at the Investment Opportunities in Viet Nam forum, which opened in Ha Noi on January 9, that the demand for housing will continue rising in Viet Nam where the property market is in short of supply.
Statistics released at the forum indicated an imbalance between the demand and the supply of apartment and office for rent. In the Ha Noi capital city, almost all apartment and office building projects report an occupancy rate of more than 95 percent. According to the real estate service provider, CB Richard Ellis (CBRE), Ha Noi has 4,924 hotel rooms rated at 3 - 5 stars and the figure remains modest as compared with 20,000 hotels in Bangkok .
Ho Jiann Ching, business development manager from the Ayala International Holdings Ltd. said he has seen a big opportunity in Viet Nam and believed that once entering the market, foreign businesses would be successful. Singapore now ranks second among foreign investors in Viet Nam , with 500 projects, capitalised at 9.7 billion USD.
Dang Dung – Vice President of the Ha Noi Association of Young Entrepreneurs (HAYE)– said almost all Singaporean projects are invested by multi-national groups. Small Singaporean firms, which have capital ranging between 1 and 10 million USD, are yet to come to Viet Nam.
UK property market predicted to continue falling
The UK commercial property market, battered throughout 2007 by falling values, is set to suffer more bad news this week with the publication of the UK annual property index from consultants IPD. Experts who follow the much-anticipated index are confidently predicting that it will show a slump of 15pc in the capital value of UK property from June, when values peaked, including a 4pc to 5pc fall in December alone, revealing that the second half of 2007 was one of the worst in recent memory.
Taking 2007 as a whole, capital values are thought to have slumped 10pc. The pain being felt by property investors has been reflected in the falling share prices of leading UK property companies such as British Land and Land Securities, which have dropped 45pc and 36pc respectively over the past 12 months. The only relief has come from a 5pc uplift in rental income over the 12-month period, which will mean the total return from property in 2007 - capital value plus rental income - will see a fall of 5pc.
However, although last year proved bad news for investors, this year is set to be worse. Paul Bacon, the chief executive of Cushman & Wakefield, the leading property advisers, said: "The big story is that since June capital values have fallen 15pc but for how long is that going to continue? We will see another 10pc fall in the first three to six months of this year. "We had a very, very significant sell-off in the last quarter. At the moment a lot of people are saying, 'This is a buying opportunity, this is the moment to start seriously looking.' " The sell-off in the property sector was highlighted last week when it emerged that the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation had amassed a 3pc stake in British Land.
URA releases flash 4th Quarter 2007 Private Residential Property Price Index
The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released today the flash estimate of the price index of private residential property for 4th Quarter 2007. Based on the estimated price index of private residential property, prices rose from 160.0 points in the 3rd Quarter 2007 to 170.5 points in the 4th Quarter 2007. This represents an increase of 6.6%, compared with the 8.3% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A)1. For the year 2007 as a whole, the price index rose 31.0%.
URA also released today the flash estimates of the price changes in the three geographical regions for 4th Quarter 2007. Prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 7.0% in Core Central Region, 7.3% in Rest of Central Region and 7.5% in Outside Central Region in the quarter (see Annex B). In comparison, for 3rd Quarter 2007, prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 8.3% in Core Central Region, 7.9% in Rest of Central Region and 7.9% in Outside Central Region.
The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold. The statistics will be updated four weeks later when URA releases the full 4th Quarter 2007 real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured. Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.
The Government will continue to monitor prices closely and release relevant price sensitive information in a timely manner. On the supply side, as at 3rd Quarter 2007, there are about 65,400 private residential units in the pipeline, of which about 41,600 new private housing units are expected to be completed between 2008 and 2010. About 38,000 units of the supply in the pipeline (or 58%) have not been sold by developers yet. This does not take into account new sites that will be made available for development through the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme. Prospective home-buyers are advised to take into consideration the ample pipeline supply of private housing, as well as the potential supply from GLS sites, when making decisions on property purchase.
Just a reminder on 2007 3rd Qtr release
Supply in the Pipeline
As at the end of 3rd Quarter 2007, there was a total supply of 65,406 uncompleted units of private housing from projects in the pipeline5 , about 16.4% higher than the 56,182 units as at the end of the previous quarter (see Annex F). Of these 65,406 units, 38,013 units were still unsold. These comprised 1,897 units that had been launched for sale by developers and 6,546 units which had the pre-requisite conditions for sale and could be launched for sale immediately. The remaining 29,570 units with planning approvals did not have the pre-requisite conditions for sale.
However, the pre-requisite approvals for sale, ie sale license from the Controller of Housing and Building Plan approval from the Building and Construction Authority (BCA) could be obtained quite quickly and these units could be made available for sale quite soon, if the developers choose to do so6 (see Annex C-1).
Of the 65,406 units, about 44,484 units are expected to be completed between the 4th Quarter of 2007 and 20107 . Construction has commenced for almost all the units scheduled for completion up to 2008. About 48% of the units that are expected to be completed in 2009 and 2010 are already under construction, while the remaining units not under construction yet can be completed as scheduled8. Details of the supply in the pipeline in the 3 locations are given in Annex C-2.
In addition, more supply will also come from the sites made available by the Government in the 2H2007 Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme, which can yield about 8,000 new units. When sold, the supply from these sites can be made available for sale within the next one year or so. The Government will also make additional supply available in the 1H2008 GLS Programme if necessary.
Apart from the additional supply from GLS sites, there will also be additional supply from new private residential developments on private land which will be coming in for planning approval, including those on sites where the existing developments have been sold en-bloc. This will further increase the number of units that can be made available for sale in the next few years.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Singapore Property News Summary 01
Why Sub-Prime crisis will remain a crisis till somebody owns up
US homeowner Christopher Aultman stopped writing mortgage cheques. And Charles Prince of Citigroup paid. Some of the US$16.6 billion that Mr Prince's bank estimates it lost on wrong-way sub-prime bets flowed to investors who for the first time were able to wager that US mortgages would collapse. The sub-prime derivatives market created in 2005 by a group of Wall Street bankers made that payday possible.
The derivatives were based on sub-prime mortgages, given to borrowers with bad or incomplete credit. Securities firms packaged and sold that debt in structured financial products where the risk was hidden by investment-grade ratings and the values proved impossible to calculate.
'These structured products were crazy profitable for Wall Street until they blew up,' says Randall Dodd, senior financial sector analyst for the International Monetary Fund in Washington. 'Ultimately it's about excessive risk-taking and greed.' The risks were amplified by the derivatives, contracts whose values are derived from packages of home loans and are used to hedge risk or for speculation. The vehicles allowed investors to bet against particular pools of mortgages.
The magnified losses caused by derivatives made it possible for a small number of defaulting sub-prime borrowers to freeze world credit markets. That's what happened in July after payments in the first quarter stopped on 13.8 per cent of sub-prime mortgages representing 4.8 per cent of total US borrowers. The defaults caused demand for sub-prime securities to dry up. Uncertainty over the value of the financial products spread to investment funds globally. Corporate lending stopped because no one knew what collateral was worth. By Aug 10, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank were forced to inject a combined US$275 billion into the banking system to keep money flowing.
The hedging offered by derivatives made investors feel invulnerable, says Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust Co in Chicago. 'Derivatives don't reduce risk, they shift risk,' Mr Kasriel says. 'The development of the derivatives market enabled investors to shift risk at a lower cost, and that encouraged them to take on more risk.' From 2001 to 2006, as US home prices rose 50 per cent nationally, owning the debt and guessing that borrowers would keep current paid off. Since July 2006, however, when housing supply began to outstrip demand and the number of late payments started to rise, the short position, or wagering against the performance of mortgages, has prevailed.
Many of those responsible for the economic upheaval caused by sub-prime derivatives have also been its victims.
Mortgage salesmen peddled loans 'based on the borrowers' ability to refinance rather than the borrowers' ability to repay,' said David Einhorn, co-founder of Greenlight Capital LLC in New York and a former director of New Century Financial Corp, the second-biggest sub-prime lender in 2006, at an investors conference in October. If the borrowers defaulted, the mortgage salesmen still got their commissions. Now many of them are jobless and broke. Daniel Sadek, who says his Costa Mesa, California, sub-prime lender Quick Loan Funding catered to borrowers with credit scores as low as 420 out of 850, had to close shop in August when Citigroup cut the company's US$400 million credit line. 'I'm surprised they went under,' says borrower Kathy Cleeves of Tenino, Washington. 'They made a fortune off us.'
Borrowers bought houses and took out equity loans they couldn't afford. That didn't matter. As home prices kept rising they could always refinance. Now many of them face foreclosure. Mr Aultman, a Union Pacific Railroad mechanic with an average credit score of 465, took US$21,000 in cash out of a 2005 refinance with Quick Loan Funding. The payments on his house in Victorville, California, adjusted to US$2,650 this month, almost double what he was paying for the fixed-rate mortgage he had before the refinance. He was planning to refinance again before he discovered that he couldn't qualify.
Bankers bought loans to turn into securities that gave them the highest yield. If the borrowers defaulted, the bankers still got their fees. Now the losses are piling up. The biggest securities firms worldwide are collectively expected to write down about US$89 billion in subprime-related losses in the second half of 2007.
Citigroup, the biggest US bank, said that it will write down as much as US$11 billion in assets on top of US$5.6 billion already announced. It was one of a 'group of five' Wall Street firms that created the sub-prime derivatives market. Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest US securities firm, wrote down US$9.4 billion in mortgage-related investments this week. 'Our assumptions included what at the time was deemed to be a worst-case scenario,' chief financial officer Colm Kelleher said on Dec 19. 'History has proven that that worst- case scenario was not the worst case.' Bear Stearns Cos announced a US$1.9 billion writedown on mortgage losses on Dec 20, sending the New York-based firm to its first quarterly loss since it went public in 1985.
Merrill Lynch & Co, the world's largest brokerage, and UBS AG, Europe's biggest bank by assets, dismissed their chief executives after they reported a combined US$11.4 billion in sub-prime-related losses in the third quarter. Merrill may post an additional US$8.6 billion in losses for the fourth quarter, David Trone, an analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochrane Caronia Waller, said. 'Derivatives led a lot of people to believe that risk was being dispersed in a way that made things safer, but the risk remained after people thought they'd moved it off their balance sheets,' says Bose George, a mortgage industry analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc in New York.
Investors didn't know what they were buying, says Sylvain Raynes, a principal in New York-based R&R Consulting Inc and co-author of the book The Analysis of Structured Securities. It didn't matter if a certain number of borrowers defaulted because the returns on some parts of the financial instruments were as much as 3 percentage points higher than 10- year Treasury yields. Now the losses are spreading. Florida schools and cities pulled almost half their deposits from a US$27 billion state investment pool linked to sub-prime mortgages.
A hospital management company in suburban Melbourne, Australia, lost a quarter of its portfolio in July on sub-prime-linked investments. Japan's 36 banks booked combined losses of 244 billion yen (S$3.12 billion) in the fiscal first half on sub-prime-related assets, according to the Financial Services Agency. Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co, Japan's fifth-largest bank by market value, says that fiscal first-half profit fell 41 per cent on higher provisions for bad loans. Eight towns in northern Norway, including Hattfjelldal, a village where reindeer outnumber the 1,500 residents, lost a combined 350 million kroner (S$91.3 million) on securities containing sub-prime mortgages. 'We are a stoic people, used to fighting against the forces of nature, so we'll manage,' says Hattfjelldal mayor Asgeir Almaas. 'We won't let this break us.'
Information about investments in derivatives, such as so-called synthetic collateralised debt obligations, was voluminous and available. A lot of it was also unread. 'These documents are not bedtime reading,' Gerald Corrigan, managing director in charge of risk management at Goldman Sachs, told a UK parliament committee. 'You have to work at it.' The three biggest ratings companies - Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings - were forced to lower ratings on a record number of CDOs last month, according to a Morgan Stanley report, as sub-prime-backed securities deteriorated.
S&P says that it downgraded 16 per cent of sub-prime vehicles issued in 2005 and 29 percent of the 2006 vintage. By comparison, the company says it upgraded 0.07 per cent of its 2005 securities and 0.08 per cent of 2006.
Those who bet against the mortgage industry fared better. J Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Partners in Dallas hired private investigators to help him sniff out the worst lenders. He says that he turned a US$110 million stake into about US$600 million. Deutsche Bank AG's writedowns on sub-prime losses were 2.16 billion euros (S$4.52 billion) - less than they would have been if not for the offsetting short trades of Greg Lippmann, the bank's global head of asset-backed securities trading.
Goldman Sachs avoided the losses other banks suffered by betting that US homeowners would walk away from their debts. John Paulson of New York-based Paulson & Co made similar bets. One of his hedge funds returned 436 per cent in the first nine months of 2007, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. 'The people who dug deep and analysed the underlying collateral of the securities made a lot of money betting against them,' says Girish Reddy, former co-head of equity derivatives at Goldman Sachs and managing partner of Prisma Capital Partners LP in Jersey City, New Jersey.
Nobody paid more dearly than Savannah Nesbit. The six-year-old and her family lost their house in Boston's Dorchester neighbourhood last month after failing to pay a sub-prime mortgage that adjusts higher every six months.
Savannah got her first bicycle for her birthday in August, pink with streamers dangling from the handlebars. She decorated the present from her grandmother with stickers of Dora the Explorer, her favourite animated character. When sheriff's deputies emptied the house and changed the locks, they left Savannah's bike behind. 'She cries about that bike every night, and she wants me to buy her another one, but I can't afford it right now because I have my own financial problems,' says Savannah's grandmother, Anne Marie Wynter, whose home is also in foreclosure.
Sadek's Quick Loan Funding had 700 employees at its 2005 peak. Now Sadek is making payments on three residential properties he mortgaged in a failed attempt to keep his firm afloat. He also owns a restaurant in Newport Beach, California. 'I'm under water,' he says, puffing on a Marlboro Light. 'I'm trying to sell everything, and nothing is being sold.' His attempts to bankroll a film career for his former fiancee, soap opera actress Nadia Bjorlin, came to naught. Last month, Bjorlin returned to her role as Chloe Lane on Days of Our Lives. Mr Aultman, the railroad mechanic, teeters on the brink of foreclosure. He has been trying to modify his loan terms with Countrywide Financial Corp, which now owns his mortgage. 'It's scary, very scary,' Mr Aultman says. 'Sometimes I'll walk through the house and touch the walls and say to myself, 'This is mine.' Moody's, S&P and Fitch continue to be arbiters of the quality of securities, though their reputations have suffered.
The Connecticut attorney general is investigating the three companies, including whether they rank debt against issuers' wishes and then demand payment, whether they threaten to downgrade debt unless they win a contract to rate all of an issuer's securities, and the practice of offering ratings discounts in return for exclusive contracts.
The Securities and Exchange Commission and two other states, New York and Ohio, have launched separate investigations of the ratings companies. Moody's also faces a shareholder lawsuit.
Deutsche Bank recently began meetings to create a new index on another security, Alt-A mortgage bonds. It will allow hedging against defaults by Alt-A borrowers, who have prime credit and get mortgages without verifying their incomes. Investors will also be able to wager that Alt-A homeowners will quit making payments, potentially turning losses into more and bigger paydays.
Foreign Worker's Dorm is no longer a low-down asset
Morgan Stanley has expanded its Singapore real estate investment portfolio to include an unusual asset class - foreign workers' dormitories. An entity understood to be linked to the US bank recently bought three dormitories from JTC Corp for $153 million and is said to have teamed up with a local party to purchase more such properties from the private sector, sources say. 'It may seem an unglamorous property type but the yields can be very attractive and Morgan Stanley has clearly sensed a business opportunity in an area that other foreign funds and property investment groups may not have spotted yet,' a source says. Morgan Stanley is said to be targeting dormitories whose tenants include blue-chip companies that lease space in these facilities for their foreign workers.
Traditionally, most institutional investors go for income-generating commercial properties like offices and retail, as well as industrial (specifically logistics and warehousing). And then serviced apartments started featuring in their portfolios. In Asia, these investors have started to look at non-traditional assets that offer higher yields as well as (residential) property development, because of yield compression for the traditional asset classes they used to focus on. 'Yields on these segments have fallen as more and more investments chase limited assets. You now have superannuation funds from Australia, Reits, and sovereign wealth funds, private equity...,' Mrs Ong says. She suggests that student housing is another sector that foreign funds may target. 'Studies have shown this to be quite a stable source of income. In places like the US and Europe, anything with P&L (income flow) can be Reited or be attractive to institutional investors - like senior housing, nursing homes, self-storage facilities, even prisons,' Mrs Ong notes.
The three dormitories that Morgan Stanley has purchased from JTC are Kian Teck Dormitory in Jurong, Tampines Dormitory and Woodlands Dormitory. Kian Teck Dormitory has 411 units with two types of units - one that can house six to 12 persons per unit, and another for seven to 14 persons per unit. Morgan Stanley unit Avery Strategic Investments bagged the properties following a public tender that closed earlier this year. It was the highest of eight bidders for the dormitories. The sale was completed in the fourth quarter. There are currently over 20 other major dormitories for housing foreign workers in Singapore. Dormitory rentals have been on the rise, especially in the past 12 months. 'There's a shortage of dorms islandwide mainly because of the construction boom. That's why some property investors are starting to look at these facilities,' an industry observer says.
Some industry watchers suggest that property yields for dormitory investors could be around 20 per cent or even higher. 'It depends to a large extent on the length of the balance lease term on the land - the shorter the remaining lease, the higher the return a potential investor will seek. There's a whole range of land leases for dormitories in the market - freehold, 60 years, 30 years and some even as short as 3 + 3 years,' an industry observer explains.
Boom Boom attracts new players
The property boom over the past two years has drawn many new players who are looking to reap the high returns that property development has to offer. Six companies made their maiden property purchases this year, data compiled by property firm CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) show. Among them are companies that have made a name for themselves in other businesses, such as construction company KSH Holdings and brokerage firm Kim Eng Holdings. Others are lesser known, like Duchess Development which was formed by two stockbrokers.
In addition, three other companies - BBR Holdings, Popular Holdings and Eastern Holdings - first made their appearance in 2006 with land purchases. This year, they have gone on to snap up more sites. 'When the market is good, it draws in players who may not have been active before,' said CBRE executive director Jeremy Lake. He noted that many of the new entrants are construction companies that might have decided to take on development risks, after watching their developer clients reap big profits. During a property boom, such risks are lessened. 'If you get your timing right in property, the profits can be substantial,' Mr Lake said.
Experts said that the same trend was seen during the last property boom, which lasted from 1993 to 1996. Companies that did not look at property development in the past are now beginning to do so because of the fatter margins. One example is SuperBowl, which teamed up with its parent company Hiap Hoe to buy two sites for a total of $211.3 million. SuperBowl's managing director Teo Ho Beng told BT that while the company will continue to focus on its core leisure and entertainment business, it will also increase its exposure to property development where the margins are better.
Similarly, KSH Holdings sees good opportunities in property development. The company's chairman and managing director Choo Chee Onn said that his company invested in residential sites this year because the opportunities opened up at the right time. 'Going forward, we will buy more sites if the right opportunities arise,' Mr Choo said in an interview. The company spent $180.8 million on two residential sites this year. The first site, which KSH acquired in June with three other partners, was the construction company's first purchase of a land parcel.
Other companies branching out from their traditional core businesses for the first time this year include electrical and mechanical engineering firm Tee International. However, new developers and developers looking at boutique projects still account for only a small chunk of total purchases in 2007. CBRE's data shows that the bulk of sites sold this year went to big players such as companies linked to banker Wee Cho Yaw (UOL Group, Kheng Leong, United Industrial Corp and Singapore Land), Malaysian tycoon Quek Leng Chan's GuocoLand and property giant CapitaLand.
New and boutique developers together bought some $2.4 billion worth of land sites in 2007, which account for about 5 per cent of total investment sales so far this year. In 2006, such developers accounted for about 4 per cent of all investment sales, while in 2005, the figure was about 3 per cent. However, property analysts warned that these new entrants are by no means guaranteed success. For starters, most bought sites in the more central areas of Singapore, where the price gain is expected to moderate this year even as construction costs are set to keep climbing, leading to a drop in margins. 'For the high-end residential segment, there is now risk of a potential correction,' said OCBC Investment Research analyst Winston Liew.
New developers might not have the resources to keep construction costs down unless they are contractors themselves, experts said. Next year, established developers who have carved out niches are likely to do best, analysts said. 'Going into 2008, we look for developers with specific niches and themes to outperform the sector as a whole,' said CIMB property analyst Donald Chua. The research firm believed that listed smaller-cap developers are likely to trade at a discount to target valuations in 2008. OCBC's Mr Liew advocated being defensive when choosing property developer stocks. 'We prefer developers that are domestic focused with substantial pre-sold projects, opportunities to unlock value from investment properties and finally offering valuation upside,' he said.
$2500psf for United House office? You bet!
The strata office market is still running hot. A first-storey freehold office unit at United House, behind Le Meridien Singapore Hotel in Orchard Road, went for $2,497 per square foot of strata area at a Colliers International auction last week. The last transacted price in the development was $1,601 psf for a 710 sq ft unit on the fifth level in April this year.
However, the highest unit price for a strata office unit here appears to be $3,050 psf, at The Central, a 99-year leasehold development above Clarke Quay MRT Station. Developer Far East Organization is said to have sold the entire 21st level of one wing of its V-shape, 25-storey office tower for $40.7 million several months ago. The space comprises units #21-89 to #21-99, adding up to a total strata area of 13,337 sq ft. BT understands the buyer is a shipping company.
The $3,050 psf surpassed the previous record, set in the same building, when Far East sold the entire 24th level in the same wing for $2,850 psf, also this year. While The Central's mall has already opened, its office tower, and small office, home office (Soho) block are expected to be ready in the first half of next year.
In the Orchard Road area, unit #01-01 of United House was auctioned by Colliers on Dec 19 for $7.5 million. The road-fronting unit - with a strata area of 3,003 sq ft - is subdivided into two smaller units that have been leased out at a total monthly rent of $13,260, with the last lease expiring in October 2008. This presents an opportunity for the property's new owner - understood to be a low-profile Singapore investment company - to enjoy a higher yield when the lease is renewed or a new tenant found. Grace Ng, Colliers deputy managing director (agency and business services) and auctioneer, attributes the unit's appeal not just to current demand for offices but to United House's potential for a collective sale.
The strata office market in other parts of Singapore also continues to buzz. At Suntec City, units on the 23rd and 27th floors have changed hands at prices ranging from $2,250 psf to $2,313 psf lately, according to caveats captured by SISV Services' Realink system. At International Plaza in Anson Road - another favourite for strata office investors - a unit on the 30th floor was sold for $1,586 psf in October. Nearby, at Shenton House, a couple of adjoining units on the 15th storey changed hands last month at about $1,500 psf. A 10th floor unit at High Street Plaza was sold for $1,714 psf a few weeks ago.
Good Class Bungalow is better class by 40%
The demand for gracious bungalow living is chugging along quite nicely. In fact, average prices of Good Class Bungalows (GCBs) are expected to appreciate by about 10 to 15 per cent next year. This appears even more impressive if you consider that this year, they have already climbed by nearly 40 per cent to $710 per square foot of land area.
The expected appreciation could propel the total value of GCB transactions to increase slightly in 2008, although the number of transactions may be slightly lower, Savills Singapore director (Prestige Homes) Steven Ming predicts.
The first 11 months of this year saw a total of 96 GCB transactions adding up to $1.28 billion. The value is an all-time record and has surpassed slightly the $1.24 billion achieved for the whole of last year. However, the number of GCB transactions from January to November this year is still shy of the 118 for the whole of 2006, according to an analysis by Savills Singapore based on caveats data from Urban Redevelopment Authority's Realis system. 'I don't expect the number of GCB transactions to increase next year, because prices have gone up quite rapidly in the past 12 to 15 months. The GCB market is generally restricted to Singaporeans and Permanents Residents with special approval to buy landed homes.
'Some of these potential buyers may have bought GCBs at much lower prices in the past and may take time to adjust to higher prevailing prices now. But having said that, there's been a lot of wealth creation over the past few years as seen in the reasonable number of record prices being set,' Mr Ming said. Credo Real Estate managing director Karamjit Singh, too, predicts moderate price upside for GCBs for next year, despite forecasting overall flat property prices. 'GCB values will benefit from the enormous wealth created from the economic boom, and the influx of high networth individuals who become permanent residents (PRs), while supply remains scarce,' he adds.
While demand-supply fundamentals remain sound next year for Singapore's real estate sector as a whole, including GCBs, the crucial factor is how the currently-shaky sentiment pans out, Mr Singh said. Record prices were set for two adjacent bungalows at Nassim Road in the past few months - 32G Nassim Road, which was sold for just under $20 million or $1,504 psf of land in September, followed by 32H Nassim Road in October at an even higher $1,899 psf.
Raffles Education founder and chairman Chew Hua Seng is believed to have picked up 32H Nassim Road, for which he paid $25.5 million. Mr Chew is said to own a few other bungalows nearby. The prices achieved for 32G and 32H Nassim Road surpassed the previous record for GCBs, of $1,308 psf set only in August this year, when Hong Kong group Wharf (Holdings) sold Glencaird, a conservation bungalow at 15 White House Park, for $28.8 million.
However, market watchers highlight that for the 32G and 32H Nassim Road transactions, each property's land area is just slightly over 1,200 sq metres - lower than the minimum 1,400 sq metres (or 15,070 sq ft) plot size stipulated under Urban Redevelopment Authority guidelines for GCBs. Savills' Mr Ming argues nonetheless that these two properties will be bound by GCB regulations if they were to be redeveloped. This means that they cannot be more than two storeys high, their built-up area is limited to 35 per cent of the total land area, and the plots cannot be subdivided further.
The year has also seen quite a few GCBs being flipped. 21 Cluny Hill was bought for $15 million in January and changed hands again for $20.2 million in June. 46 Mount Echo Park was sold for $10 million in January and again for $12.8 million in March. 'Some savvy bungalow investors with deep pockets, saw value in investing in freehold GCBs earlier this year, when their prices were lagging quite a bit behind those of 99-year bungalows on Sentosa Cove. The gap has since narrowed and these investors have been able to offload their GCB investment for a handsome profit,' Mr Ming said.
Over at Sentosa Cove, seafronting bungalow sites have fetched as much as $1,696 psf this year. These are vacant sites sold by the precinct's master developer, Sentosa Cove Pte Ltd, to buyers to build their dream homes on them.
The supply of completed bungalows for sale in the upscale waterfront housing locale is still limited, but Savills' director of business development and marketing Ku Swee Yong says that owners are asking for $1,800 psf to $2,400 psf depending on the direction they face. 'The main reason for higher bungalow values on Sentosa Cove than in mainland Singapore is because of expedited approval for foreign buyers of landed property on Sentosa Cove. This has been a great draw for those who want to be PRs in Singapore and park a fraction of their wealth here,' Mr Ku said.
Stars of 2008 - the mid-tier & Mass Market will shine
Next year could be the year of the mid-tier and mass market sectors with prices expected to rise between 8 and 15 per cent. Whether this will happen depends largely on en bloc millionaires, the return of HDB upgraders, the resilience of the Singapore economy, and the possibility of more developers stemming supply and landbanking their redevelopment sites. CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho expects 10,000-13,000 new homes to be sold, 'with more activity seen in the mid-tier and mass market'.
The number falls short of the estimated total number of 15,000 units sold in 2007. But Mr Li said that, in the event of a downturn, developers who can hold will push back their launches until the market turns around. 'This is possible because most of the collective sale sites are on freehold tenure,' he added. Mr Li also noted that while about 67 per cent of the development sites sold in 2006 were in the prime districts of District 9, 10 and 11, this fell to 49 per cent in 2007. 'More sites outside the prime districts were acquired via the collective sale route in 2007, compared to 2006 when there was more supply in prime areas, and when prices were more affordable,' he added.
Based on total sites sold, CBRE estimates that there could be about 14,000 units ready for launch outside the prime districts next year. This includes a potential 1,600-unit 99-year leasehold condo built by Frasers Centrepoint and Far East Organization in Tampines, and a 630-unit 99-year leasehold condo by Sim Lian Land in Bishan. Savills Singapore director of marketing and business development Ku Swee Yong reckons that of the new launches, the majority would be mid-tier. 'There are not enough launch-ready mass market sites of significant size,' said Mr Ku.
He believes that there could be more mass market sites in the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme, with prices for the mass market gaining 30-50 per cent, and mid-tier prices rising 20-40 per cent.
Apart from a rising number of new citizens and PRs (permanent residents), Mr Ku expects an influx of integrated resorts-related foreign manpower in the second half of 2008. 'The high-end will be replenished with the re-construction of en bloc sites but the mass market housing for junior level expats and foreign talent will have to come from GLS sites,' he added. Colliers International director of research and consultancy Tay Huey Ying also expects buyers hoping to reap rental returns to make up a significant portion of the mass market.
However, Ms Tay believes that the mass market and mid-tier sectors will no longer be quite as easy to define.
With many developers improving their product to try and price their projects at benchmark levels, Ms Tay says, there is a noticeable blurring of tiers as the higher-end of each tier encroaches into the lower-end of the next tier. 'As such, it would be more appropriate to segmentise the residential property market into seven tiers, namely, mass, upper-mass, mid-tier, upper mid-tier, high-end, luxury and super luxury,' she explained. Colliers' target prices for the mass and upper-mass market developments are below $750 psf, and between $750 and $1,100 psf respectively.
Projected prices for the mid-tier market are from $900 to $1,800 psf, and upper mid-tier market, from $1,800 to $2,500 psf. At these prices, HDB upgraders could be priced out of the private market.
Resale HDB prices are rising with cash-over-valuation now as high as $150,000. Although this is for very select units, sellers are nevertheless holding out for higher resale prices. ERA Singapore assistant vice-president Eugene Lim, for one, does not expect resale volume in 2008 to top the estimated 30,000 units sold in 2007. PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail reckons that resale prices will rise 10-15 per cent in 2008. In spite of this, he believes interest on mortgages, stamp duty and legal fees will still leave about 10 per cent of HDB sellers in negative equity if they sell now.
Highlighting a recent trend, Mr Mohamed notes that 5-room flats in areas such as Bishan, Bukit Merah, Bukit Timah, Central, Clementi, Kallang, Marina Parade, Queenstown and Toa Payoh commanded cash-over-valuation of $50,000 and above in Q307. He added that buyers were mainly private property downgraders or en bloc millionaires who are also finding private property too expensive.
Sales likely to flatten over last quarter
The number of private homes sold by developers inched up 4.7 per cent to 593 units in November, up from 566 units in October. The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) also revealed monthly property market data of transacted benchmark prices as well as median prices. During the month, a significant number of transactions were seen at Amber Residences, which sold 85 units at the median price of $1,392 psf, and Casa Fortuna which sold 103 units at $1,009 psf. CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho also noted that 20 units at 8 Napier were sold at a median price of $3,557 psf and pointed out that these were likely to have been made by a single buyer.
On the performance in November, Mr Li said: 'Overall, prices are firming. Sales volume and prices in December should remain at the same levels as October and November.' Indeed, developers told BT that launch prices are being maintained even though buyers are now a bit more 'cautious'. UIC Ltd's 192-unit Park Natura, across from Bukit Batok Nature Park, saw 56 units sold in the month at a median price of $945 psf. The price was slightly lower than the October median price of $1,022 but UIC group general manager Vito Koh explained that this was because units sold in November included those with private enclosed spaces like roof terraces. Mr Koh said that the withdrawal of the Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS) have made buyers more cautious but added that he believes developers are not lowering prices to move units. 'Prices are not coming down, but they are not going up either,' he said.
A comparison of the median price of Amber Residence ($1,392 psf) and the reported average selling price ($1,650 psf) does appear to show that prices may have softened a little. According to the URA data, 68 units were sold in the $1,000-$1,500 psf bracket with 16 units sold in the $1,500-$2,000 psf bracket. One unit was sold at between $2,000-$2,500 psf. Jones Lang LaSalle head of research and consultancy Chua Yang Liang noted that launches declined significantly in the Core Central Region (CCR) by 43 per cent from the 166 in October to only 95 in November. 'The take-up or demand further reflects this softer market with 130 units absorbed - a marginal drop of 4 per cent month-on-month (MoM),' he said.
Similarly, demand in the Outside Central Region (OCR) also weakened with a 33 per cent MoM decline or only 173 units absorbed compared to 259 in October. Dr Chua pointed out that this was on the back of a larger supply of 221 units or a 28 per cent increase in the number of units launched. 'The decline in demand in OCR is a likely result of the removal of the DPS,' he explained.
In contrast, the demand in Rest of Central Region (RCR) remained strong. In November, the take-up increased by 57 per cent MoM. Most of the transactions in the RCR were in District 15. 'Take-up in this segment is largely driven by foreign occupiers that has spilled over from the CCR,' Dr Chua added. According to the URA data, there are over 4,000 units in 70 developments with pre-requisites for sale as at end-November. This includes mass-market offerings at Bedok Resevoir as well as high-end developments at Cairnhill.
While developers are not 'panicking' at the possibility of a slowdown in the economy, Cushman & Wakefield managing director Donald Han believes more will be 'repositioning' their launches and going directly to foreign buyers in the Middle East and North Asia. Mr Han, who expects the total volume of transactions in Q4 2007 to be below 2,000 units, added: 'Some developers were already marketing their high-end products at the recent Mipim exhibition in Hong Kong to reach an international market.'
It is a strategy that appears to be working. Savills Singapore director of marketing and business development Ku Swee Yong said he was pleasantly surprised at some of the benchmark prices reached in the high-end sector, with the highest price for the 40-unit Sui Generis at Balmoral Crescent increasing from $2,578 in October to $2,713 psf in November. Six units were transacted in November and the median price rose from $2,406 to $2,474 psf. Saying that he believes that this end of the market would continue to be driven by international high net worth individuals, he revealed: 'We had a client who insisted on being first in queue for The Ritz Carlton Residence.' The client later set a new benchmark price of $4,515 psf for the Cairnhill area.
US homeowner Christopher Aultman stopped writing mortgage cheques. And Charles Prince of Citigroup paid. Some of the US$16.6 billion that Mr Prince's bank estimates it lost on wrong-way sub-prime bets flowed to investors who for the first time were able to wager that US mortgages would collapse. The sub-prime derivatives market created in 2005 by a group of Wall Street bankers made that payday possible.
The derivatives were based on sub-prime mortgages, given to borrowers with bad or incomplete credit. Securities firms packaged and sold that debt in structured financial products where the risk was hidden by investment-grade ratings and the values proved impossible to calculate.
'These structured products were crazy profitable for Wall Street until they blew up,' says Randall Dodd, senior financial sector analyst for the International Monetary Fund in Washington. 'Ultimately it's about excessive risk-taking and greed.' The risks were amplified by the derivatives, contracts whose values are derived from packages of home loans and are used to hedge risk or for speculation. The vehicles allowed investors to bet against particular pools of mortgages.
The magnified losses caused by derivatives made it possible for a small number of defaulting sub-prime borrowers to freeze world credit markets. That's what happened in July after payments in the first quarter stopped on 13.8 per cent of sub-prime mortgages representing 4.8 per cent of total US borrowers. The defaults caused demand for sub-prime securities to dry up. Uncertainty over the value of the financial products spread to investment funds globally. Corporate lending stopped because no one knew what collateral was worth. By Aug 10, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank were forced to inject a combined US$275 billion into the banking system to keep money flowing.
The hedging offered by derivatives made investors feel invulnerable, says Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust Co in Chicago. 'Derivatives don't reduce risk, they shift risk,' Mr Kasriel says. 'The development of the derivatives market enabled investors to shift risk at a lower cost, and that encouraged them to take on more risk.' From 2001 to 2006, as US home prices rose 50 per cent nationally, owning the debt and guessing that borrowers would keep current paid off. Since July 2006, however, when housing supply began to outstrip demand and the number of late payments started to rise, the short position, or wagering against the performance of mortgages, has prevailed.
Many of those responsible for the economic upheaval caused by sub-prime derivatives have also been its victims.
Mortgage salesmen peddled loans 'based on the borrowers' ability to refinance rather than the borrowers' ability to repay,' said David Einhorn, co-founder of Greenlight Capital LLC in New York and a former director of New Century Financial Corp, the second-biggest sub-prime lender in 2006, at an investors conference in October. If the borrowers defaulted, the mortgage salesmen still got their commissions. Now many of them are jobless and broke. Daniel Sadek, who says his Costa Mesa, California, sub-prime lender Quick Loan Funding catered to borrowers with credit scores as low as 420 out of 850, had to close shop in August when Citigroup cut the company's US$400 million credit line. 'I'm surprised they went under,' says borrower Kathy Cleeves of Tenino, Washington. 'They made a fortune off us.'
Borrowers bought houses and took out equity loans they couldn't afford. That didn't matter. As home prices kept rising they could always refinance. Now many of them face foreclosure. Mr Aultman, a Union Pacific Railroad mechanic with an average credit score of 465, took US$21,000 in cash out of a 2005 refinance with Quick Loan Funding. The payments on his house in Victorville, California, adjusted to US$2,650 this month, almost double what he was paying for the fixed-rate mortgage he had before the refinance. He was planning to refinance again before he discovered that he couldn't qualify.
Bankers bought loans to turn into securities that gave them the highest yield. If the borrowers defaulted, the bankers still got their fees. Now the losses are piling up. The biggest securities firms worldwide are collectively expected to write down about US$89 billion in subprime-related losses in the second half of 2007.
Citigroup, the biggest US bank, said that it will write down as much as US$11 billion in assets on top of US$5.6 billion already announced. It was one of a 'group of five' Wall Street firms that created the sub-prime derivatives market. Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest US securities firm, wrote down US$9.4 billion in mortgage-related investments this week. 'Our assumptions included what at the time was deemed to be a worst-case scenario,' chief financial officer Colm Kelleher said on Dec 19. 'History has proven that that worst- case scenario was not the worst case.' Bear Stearns Cos announced a US$1.9 billion writedown on mortgage losses on Dec 20, sending the New York-based firm to its first quarterly loss since it went public in 1985.
Merrill Lynch & Co, the world's largest brokerage, and UBS AG, Europe's biggest bank by assets, dismissed their chief executives after they reported a combined US$11.4 billion in sub-prime-related losses in the third quarter. Merrill may post an additional US$8.6 billion in losses for the fourth quarter, David Trone, an analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochrane Caronia Waller, said. 'Derivatives led a lot of people to believe that risk was being dispersed in a way that made things safer, but the risk remained after people thought they'd moved it off their balance sheets,' says Bose George, a mortgage industry analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc in New York.
Investors didn't know what they were buying, says Sylvain Raynes, a principal in New York-based R&R Consulting Inc and co-author of the book The Analysis of Structured Securities. It didn't matter if a certain number of borrowers defaulted because the returns on some parts of the financial instruments were as much as 3 percentage points higher than 10- year Treasury yields. Now the losses are spreading. Florida schools and cities pulled almost half their deposits from a US$27 billion state investment pool linked to sub-prime mortgages.
A hospital management company in suburban Melbourne, Australia, lost a quarter of its portfolio in July on sub-prime-linked investments. Japan's 36 banks booked combined losses of 244 billion yen (S$3.12 billion) in the fiscal first half on sub-prime-related assets, according to the Financial Services Agency. Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co, Japan's fifth-largest bank by market value, says that fiscal first-half profit fell 41 per cent on higher provisions for bad loans. Eight towns in northern Norway, including Hattfjelldal, a village where reindeer outnumber the 1,500 residents, lost a combined 350 million kroner (S$91.3 million) on securities containing sub-prime mortgages. 'We are a stoic people, used to fighting against the forces of nature, so we'll manage,' says Hattfjelldal mayor Asgeir Almaas. 'We won't let this break us.'
Information about investments in derivatives, such as so-called synthetic collateralised debt obligations, was voluminous and available. A lot of it was also unread. 'These documents are not bedtime reading,' Gerald Corrigan, managing director in charge of risk management at Goldman Sachs, told a UK parliament committee. 'You have to work at it.' The three biggest ratings companies - Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings - were forced to lower ratings on a record number of CDOs last month, according to a Morgan Stanley report, as sub-prime-backed securities deteriorated.
S&P says that it downgraded 16 per cent of sub-prime vehicles issued in 2005 and 29 percent of the 2006 vintage. By comparison, the company says it upgraded 0.07 per cent of its 2005 securities and 0.08 per cent of 2006.
Those who bet against the mortgage industry fared better. J Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Partners in Dallas hired private investigators to help him sniff out the worst lenders. He says that he turned a US$110 million stake into about US$600 million. Deutsche Bank AG's writedowns on sub-prime losses were 2.16 billion euros (S$4.52 billion) - less than they would have been if not for the offsetting short trades of Greg Lippmann, the bank's global head of asset-backed securities trading.
Goldman Sachs avoided the losses other banks suffered by betting that US homeowners would walk away from their debts. John Paulson of New York-based Paulson & Co made similar bets. One of his hedge funds returned 436 per cent in the first nine months of 2007, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. 'The people who dug deep and analysed the underlying collateral of the securities made a lot of money betting against them,' says Girish Reddy, former co-head of equity derivatives at Goldman Sachs and managing partner of Prisma Capital Partners LP in Jersey City, New Jersey.
Nobody paid more dearly than Savannah Nesbit. The six-year-old and her family lost their house in Boston's Dorchester neighbourhood last month after failing to pay a sub-prime mortgage that adjusts higher every six months.
Savannah got her first bicycle for her birthday in August, pink with streamers dangling from the handlebars. She decorated the present from her grandmother with stickers of Dora the Explorer, her favourite animated character. When sheriff's deputies emptied the house and changed the locks, they left Savannah's bike behind. 'She cries about that bike every night, and she wants me to buy her another one, but I can't afford it right now because I have my own financial problems,' says Savannah's grandmother, Anne Marie Wynter, whose home is also in foreclosure.
Sadek's Quick Loan Funding had 700 employees at its 2005 peak. Now Sadek is making payments on three residential properties he mortgaged in a failed attempt to keep his firm afloat. He also owns a restaurant in Newport Beach, California. 'I'm under water,' he says, puffing on a Marlboro Light. 'I'm trying to sell everything, and nothing is being sold.' His attempts to bankroll a film career for his former fiancee, soap opera actress Nadia Bjorlin, came to naught. Last month, Bjorlin returned to her role as Chloe Lane on Days of Our Lives. Mr Aultman, the railroad mechanic, teeters on the brink of foreclosure. He has been trying to modify his loan terms with Countrywide Financial Corp, which now owns his mortgage. 'It's scary, very scary,' Mr Aultman says. 'Sometimes I'll walk through the house and touch the walls and say to myself, 'This is mine.' Moody's, S&P and Fitch continue to be arbiters of the quality of securities, though their reputations have suffered.
The Connecticut attorney general is investigating the three companies, including whether they rank debt against issuers' wishes and then demand payment, whether they threaten to downgrade debt unless they win a contract to rate all of an issuer's securities, and the practice of offering ratings discounts in return for exclusive contracts.
The Securities and Exchange Commission and two other states, New York and Ohio, have launched separate investigations of the ratings companies. Moody's also faces a shareholder lawsuit.
Deutsche Bank recently began meetings to create a new index on another security, Alt-A mortgage bonds. It will allow hedging against defaults by Alt-A borrowers, who have prime credit and get mortgages without verifying their incomes. Investors will also be able to wager that Alt-A homeowners will quit making payments, potentially turning losses into more and bigger paydays.
Foreign Worker's Dorm is no longer a low-down asset
Morgan Stanley has expanded its Singapore real estate investment portfolio to include an unusual asset class - foreign workers' dormitories. An entity understood to be linked to the US bank recently bought three dormitories from JTC Corp for $153 million and is said to have teamed up with a local party to purchase more such properties from the private sector, sources say. 'It may seem an unglamorous property type but the yields can be very attractive and Morgan Stanley has clearly sensed a business opportunity in an area that other foreign funds and property investment groups may not have spotted yet,' a source says. Morgan Stanley is said to be targeting dormitories whose tenants include blue-chip companies that lease space in these facilities for their foreign workers.
Traditionally, most institutional investors go for income-generating commercial properties like offices and retail, as well as industrial (specifically logistics and warehousing). And then serviced apartments started featuring in their portfolios. In Asia, these investors have started to look at non-traditional assets that offer higher yields as well as (residential) property development, because of yield compression for the traditional asset classes they used to focus on. 'Yields on these segments have fallen as more and more investments chase limited assets. You now have superannuation funds from Australia, Reits, and sovereign wealth funds, private equity...,' Mrs Ong says. She suggests that student housing is another sector that foreign funds may target. 'Studies have shown this to be quite a stable source of income. In places like the US and Europe, anything with P&L (income flow) can be Reited or be attractive to institutional investors - like senior housing, nursing homes, self-storage facilities, even prisons,' Mrs Ong notes.
The three dormitories that Morgan Stanley has purchased from JTC are Kian Teck Dormitory in Jurong, Tampines Dormitory and Woodlands Dormitory. Kian Teck Dormitory has 411 units with two types of units - one that can house six to 12 persons per unit, and another for seven to 14 persons per unit. Morgan Stanley unit Avery Strategic Investments bagged the properties following a public tender that closed earlier this year. It was the highest of eight bidders for the dormitories. The sale was completed in the fourth quarter. There are currently over 20 other major dormitories for housing foreign workers in Singapore. Dormitory rentals have been on the rise, especially in the past 12 months. 'There's a shortage of dorms islandwide mainly because of the construction boom. That's why some property investors are starting to look at these facilities,' an industry observer says.
Some industry watchers suggest that property yields for dormitory investors could be around 20 per cent or even higher. 'It depends to a large extent on the length of the balance lease term on the land - the shorter the remaining lease, the higher the return a potential investor will seek. There's a whole range of land leases for dormitories in the market - freehold, 60 years, 30 years and some even as short as 3 + 3 years,' an industry observer explains.
Boom Boom attracts new players
The property boom over the past two years has drawn many new players who are looking to reap the high returns that property development has to offer. Six companies made their maiden property purchases this year, data compiled by property firm CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) show. Among them are companies that have made a name for themselves in other businesses, such as construction company KSH Holdings and brokerage firm Kim Eng Holdings. Others are lesser known, like Duchess Development which was formed by two stockbrokers.
In addition, three other companies - BBR Holdings, Popular Holdings and Eastern Holdings - first made their appearance in 2006 with land purchases. This year, they have gone on to snap up more sites. 'When the market is good, it draws in players who may not have been active before,' said CBRE executive director Jeremy Lake. He noted that many of the new entrants are construction companies that might have decided to take on development risks, after watching their developer clients reap big profits. During a property boom, such risks are lessened. 'If you get your timing right in property, the profits can be substantial,' Mr Lake said.
Experts said that the same trend was seen during the last property boom, which lasted from 1993 to 1996. Companies that did not look at property development in the past are now beginning to do so because of the fatter margins. One example is SuperBowl, which teamed up with its parent company Hiap Hoe to buy two sites for a total of $211.3 million. SuperBowl's managing director Teo Ho Beng told BT that while the company will continue to focus on its core leisure and entertainment business, it will also increase its exposure to property development where the margins are better.
Similarly, KSH Holdings sees good opportunities in property development. The company's chairman and managing director Choo Chee Onn said that his company invested in residential sites this year because the opportunities opened up at the right time. 'Going forward, we will buy more sites if the right opportunities arise,' Mr Choo said in an interview. The company spent $180.8 million on two residential sites this year. The first site, which KSH acquired in June with three other partners, was the construction company's first purchase of a land parcel.
Other companies branching out from their traditional core businesses for the first time this year include electrical and mechanical engineering firm Tee International. However, new developers and developers looking at boutique projects still account for only a small chunk of total purchases in 2007. CBRE's data shows that the bulk of sites sold this year went to big players such as companies linked to banker Wee Cho Yaw (UOL Group, Kheng Leong, United Industrial Corp and Singapore Land), Malaysian tycoon Quek Leng Chan's GuocoLand and property giant CapitaLand.
New and boutique developers together bought some $2.4 billion worth of land sites in 2007, which account for about 5 per cent of total investment sales so far this year. In 2006, such developers accounted for about 4 per cent of all investment sales, while in 2005, the figure was about 3 per cent. However, property analysts warned that these new entrants are by no means guaranteed success. For starters, most bought sites in the more central areas of Singapore, where the price gain is expected to moderate this year even as construction costs are set to keep climbing, leading to a drop in margins. 'For the high-end residential segment, there is now risk of a potential correction,' said OCBC Investment Research analyst Winston Liew.
New developers might not have the resources to keep construction costs down unless they are contractors themselves, experts said. Next year, established developers who have carved out niches are likely to do best, analysts said. 'Going into 2008, we look for developers with specific niches and themes to outperform the sector as a whole,' said CIMB property analyst Donald Chua. The research firm believed that listed smaller-cap developers are likely to trade at a discount to target valuations in 2008. OCBC's Mr Liew advocated being defensive when choosing property developer stocks. 'We prefer developers that are domestic focused with substantial pre-sold projects, opportunities to unlock value from investment properties and finally offering valuation upside,' he said.
$2500psf for United House office? You bet!
The strata office market is still running hot. A first-storey freehold office unit at United House, behind Le Meridien Singapore Hotel in Orchard Road, went for $2,497 per square foot of strata area at a Colliers International auction last week. The last transacted price in the development was $1,601 psf for a 710 sq ft unit on the fifth level in April this year.
However, the highest unit price for a strata office unit here appears to be $3,050 psf, at The Central, a 99-year leasehold development above Clarke Quay MRT Station. Developer Far East Organization is said to have sold the entire 21st level of one wing of its V-shape, 25-storey office tower for $40.7 million several months ago. The space comprises units #21-89 to #21-99, adding up to a total strata area of 13,337 sq ft. BT understands the buyer is a shipping company.
The $3,050 psf surpassed the previous record, set in the same building, when Far East sold the entire 24th level in the same wing for $2,850 psf, also this year. While The Central's mall has already opened, its office tower, and small office, home office (Soho) block are expected to be ready in the first half of next year.
In the Orchard Road area, unit #01-01 of United House was auctioned by Colliers on Dec 19 for $7.5 million. The road-fronting unit - with a strata area of 3,003 sq ft - is subdivided into two smaller units that have been leased out at a total monthly rent of $13,260, with the last lease expiring in October 2008. This presents an opportunity for the property's new owner - understood to be a low-profile Singapore investment company - to enjoy a higher yield when the lease is renewed or a new tenant found. Grace Ng, Colliers deputy managing director (agency and business services) and auctioneer, attributes the unit's appeal not just to current demand for offices but to United House's potential for a collective sale.
The strata office market in other parts of Singapore also continues to buzz. At Suntec City, units on the 23rd and 27th floors have changed hands at prices ranging from $2,250 psf to $2,313 psf lately, according to caveats captured by SISV Services' Realink system. At International Plaza in Anson Road - another favourite for strata office investors - a unit on the 30th floor was sold for $1,586 psf in October. Nearby, at Shenton House, a couple of adjoining units on the 15th storey changed hands last month at about $1,500 psf. A 10th floor unit at High Street Plaza was sold for $1,714 psf a few weeks ago.
Good Class Bungalow is better class by 40%
The demand for gracious bungalow living is chugging along quite nicely. In fact, average prices of Good Class Bungalows (GCBs) are expected to appreciate by about 10 to 15 per cent next year. This appears even more impressive if you consider that this year, they have already climbed by nearly 40 per cent to $710 per square foot of land area.
The expected appreciation could propel the total value of GCB transactions to increase slightly in 2008, although the number of transactions may be slightly lower, Savills Singapore director (Prestige Homes) Steven Ming predicts.
The first 11 months of this year saw a total of 96 GCB transactions adding up to $1.28 billion. The value is an all-time record and has surpassed slightly the $1.24 billion achieved for the whole of last year. However, the number of GCB transactions from January to November this year is still shy of the 118 for the whole of 2006, according to an analysis by Savills Singapore based on caveats data from Urban Redevelopment Authority's Realis system. 'I don't expect the number of GCB transactions to increase next year, because prices have gone up quite rapidly in the past 12 to 15 months. The GCB market is generally restricted to Singaporeans and Permanents Residents with special approval to buy landed homes.
'Some of these potential buyers may have bought GCBs at much lower prices in the past and may take time to adjust to higher prevailing prices now. But having said that, there's been a lot of wealth creation over the past few years as seen in the reasonable number of record prices being set,' Mr Ming said. Credo Real Estate managing director Karamjit Singh, too, predicts moderate price upside for GCBs for next year, despite forecasting overall flat property prices. 'GCB values will benefit from the enormous wealth created from the economic boom, and the influx of high networth individuals who become permanent residents (PRs), while supply remains scarce,' he adds.
While demand-supply fundamentals remain sound next year for Singapore's real estate sector as a whole, including GCBs, the crucial factor is how the currently-shaky sentiment pans out, Mr Singh said. Record prices were set for two adjacent bungalows at Nassim Road in the past few months - 32G Nassim Road, which was sold for just under $20 million or $1,504 psf of land in September, followed by 32H Nassim Road in October at an even higher $1,899 psf.
Raffles Education founder and chairman Chew Hua Seng is believed to have picked up 32H Nassim Road, for which he paid $25.5 million. Mr Chew is said to own a few other bungalows nearby. The prices achieved for 32G and 32H Nassim Road surpassed the previous record for GCBs, of $1,308 psf set only in August this year, when Hong Kong group Wharf (Holdings) sold Glencaird, a conservation bungalow at 15 White House Park, for $28.8 million.
However, market watchers highlight that for the 32G and 32H Nassim Road transactions, each property's land area is just slightly over 1,200 sq metres - lower than the minimum 1,400 sq metres (or 15,070 sq ft) plot size stipulated under Urban Redevelopment Authority guidelines for GCBs. Savills' Mr Ming argues nonetheless that these two properties will be bound by GCB regulations if they were to be redeveloped. This means that they cannot be more than two storeys high, their built-up area is limited to 35 per cent of the total land area, and the plots cannot be subdivided further.
The year has also seen quite a few GCBs being flipped. 21 Cluny Hill was bought for $15 million in January and changed hands again for $20.2 million in June. 46 Mount Echo Park was sold for $10 million in January and again for $12.8 million in March. 'Some savvy bungalow investors with deep pockets, saw value in investing in freehold GCBs earlier this year, when their prices were lagging quite a bit behind those of 99-year bungalows on Sentosa Cove. The gap has since narrowed and these investors have been able to offload their GCB investment for a handsome profit,' Mr Ming said.
Over at Sentosa Cove, seafronting bungalow sites have fetched as much as $1,696 psf this year. These are vacant sites sold by the precinct's master developer, Sentosa Cove Pte Ltd, to buyers to build their dream homes on them.
The supply of completed bungalows for sale in the upscale waterfront housing locale is still limited, but Savills' director of business development and marketing Ku Swee Yong says that owners are asking for $1,800 psf to $2,400 psf depending on the direction they face. 'The main reason for higher bungalow values on Sentosa Cove than in mainland Singapore is because of expedited approval for foreign buyers of landed property on Sentosa Cove. This has been a great draw for those who want to be PRs in Singapore and park a fraction of their wealth here,' Mr Ku said.
Stars of 2008 - the mid-tier & Mass Market will shine
Next year could be the year of the mid-tier and mass market sectors with prices expected to rise between 8 and 15 per cent. Whether this will happen depends largely on en bloc millionaires, the return of HDB upgraders, the resilience of the Singapore economy, and the possibility of more developers stemming supply and landbanking their redevelopment sites. CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho expects 10,000-13,000 new homes to be sold, 'with more activity seen in the mid-tier and mass market'.
The number falls short of the estimated total number of 15,000 units sold in 2007. But Mr Li said that, in the event of a downturn, developers who can hold will push back their launches until the market turns around. 'This is possible because most of the collective sale sites are on freehold tenure,' he added. Mr Li also noted that while about 67 per cent of the development sites sold in 2006 were in the prime districts of District 9, 10 and 11, this fell to 49 per cent in 2007. 'More sites outside the prime districts were acquired via the collective sale route in 2007, compared to 2006 when there was more supply in prime areas, and when prices were more affordable,' he added.
Based on total sites sold, CBRE estimates that there could be about 14,000 units ready for launch outside the prime districts next year. This includes a potential 1,600-unit 99-year leasehold condo built by Frasers Centrepoint and Far East Organization in Tampines, and a 630-unit 99-year leasehold condo by Sim Lian Land in Bishan. Savills Singapore director of marketing and business development Ku Swee Yong reckons that of the new launches, the majority would be mid-tier. 'There are not enough launch-ready mass market sites of significant size,' said Mr Ku.
He believes that there could be more mass market sites in the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme, with prices for the mass market gaining 30-50 per cent, and mid-tier prices rising 20-40 per cent.
Apart from a rising number of new citizens and PRs (permanent residents), Mr Ku expects an influx of integrated resorts-related foreign manpower in the second half of 2008. 'The high-end will be replenished with the re-construction of en bloc sites but the mass market housing for junior level expats and foreign talent will have to come from GLS sites,' he added. Colliers International director of research and consultancy Tay Huey Ying also expects buyers hoping to reap rental returns to make up a significant portion of the mass market.
However, Ms Tay believes that the mass market and mid-tier sectors will no longer be quite as easy to define.
With many developers improving their product to try and price their projects at benchmark levels, Ms Tay says, there is a noticeable blurring of tiers as the higher-end of each tier encroaches into the lower-end of the next tier. 'As such, it would be more appropriate to segmentise the residential property market into seven tiers, namely, mass, upper-mass, mid-tier, upper mid-tier, high-end, luxury and super luxury,' she explained. Colliers' target prices for the mass and upper-mass market developments are below $750 psf, and between $750 and $1,100 psf respectively.
Projected prices for the mid-tier market are from $900 to $1,800 psf, and upper mid-tier market, from $1,800 to $2,500 psf. At these prices, HDB upgraders could be priced out of the private market.
Resale HDB prices are rising with cash-over-valuation now as high as $150,000. Although this is for very select units, sellers are nevertheless holding out for higher resale prices. ERA Singapore assistant vice-president Eugene Lim, for one, does not expect resale volume in 2008 to top the estimated 30,000 units sold in 2007. PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail reckons that resale prices will rise 10-15 per cent in 2008. In spite of this, he believes interest on mortgages, stamp duty and legal fees will still leave about 10 per cent of HDB sellers in negative equity if they sell now.
Highlighting a recent trend, Mr Mohamed notes that 5-room flats in areas such as Bishan, Bukit Merah, Bukit Timah, Central, Clementi, Kallang, Marina Parade, Queenstown and Toa Payoh commanded cash-over-valuation of $50,000 and above in Q307. He added that buyers were mainly private property downgraders or en bloc millionaires who are also finding private property too expensive.
Sales likely to flatten over last quarter
The number of private homes sold by developers inched up 4.7 per cent to 593 units in November, up from 566 units in October. The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) also revealed monthly property market data of transacted benchmark prices as well as median prices. During the month, a significant number of transactions were seen at Amber Residences, which sold 85 units at the median price of $1,392 psf, and Casa Fortuna which sold 103 units at $1,009 psf. CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho also noted that 20 units at 8 Napier were sold at a median price of $3,557 psf and pointed out that these were likely to have been made by a single buyer.
On the performance in November, Mr Li said: 'Overall, prices are firming. Sales volume and prices in December should remain at the same levels as October and November.' Indeed, developers told BT that launch prices are being maintained even though buyers are now a bit more 'cautious'. UIC Ltd's 192-unit Park Natura, across from Bukit Batok Nature Park, saw 56 units sold in the month at a median price of $945 psf. The price was slightly lower than the October median price of $1,022 but UIC group general manager Vito Koh explained that this was because units sold in November included those with private enclosed spaces like roof terraces. Mr Koh said that the withdrawal of the Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS) have made buyers more cautious but added that he believes developers are not lowering prices to move units. 'Prices are not coming down, but they are not going up either,' he said.
A comparison of the median price of Amber Residence ($1,392 psf) and the reported average selling price ($1,650 psf) does appear to show that prices may have softened a little. According to the URA data, 68 units were sold in the $1,000-$1,500 psf bracket with 16 units sold in the $1,500-$2,000 psf bracket. One unit was sold at between $2,000-$2,500 psf. Jones Lang LaSalle head of research and consultancy Chua Yang Liang noted that launches declined significantly in the Core Central Region (CCR) by 43 per cent from the 166 in October to only 95 in November. 'The take-up or demand further reflects this softer market with 130 units absorbed - a marginal drop of 4 per cent month-on-month (MoM),' he said.
Similarly, demand in the Outside Central Region (OCR) also weakened with a 33 per cent MoM decline or only 173 units absorbed compared to 259 in October. Dr Chua pointed out that this was on the back of a larger supply of 221 units or a 28 per cent increase in the number of units launched. 'The decline in demand in OCR is a likely result of the removal of the DPS,' he explained.
In contrast, the demand in Rest of Central Region (RCR) remained strong. In November, the take-up increased by 57 per cent MoM. Most of the transactions in the RCR were in District 15. 'Take-up in this segment is largely driven by foreign occupiers that has spilled over from the CCR,' Dr Chua added. According to the URA data, there are over 4,000 units in 70 developments with pre-requisites for sale as at end-November. This includes mass-market offerings at Bedok Resevoir as well as high-end developments at Cairnhill.
While developers are not 'panicking' at the possibility of a slowdown in the economy, Cushman & Wakefield managing director Donald Han believes more will be 'repositioning' their launches and going directly to foreign buyers in the Middle East and North Asia. Mr Han, who expects the total volume of transactions in Q4 2007 to be below 2,000 units, added: 'Some developers were already marketing their high-end products at the recent Mipim exhibition in Hong Kong to reach an international market.'
It is a strategy that appears to be working. Savills Singapore director of marketing and business development Ku Swee Yong said he was pleasantly surprised at some of the benchmark prices reached in the high-end sector, with the highest price for the 40-unit Sui Generis at Balmoral Crescent increasing from $2,578 in October to $2,713 psf in November. Six units were transacted in November and the median price rose from $2,406 to $2,474 psf. Saying that he believes that this end of the market would continue to be driven by international high net worth individuals, he revealed: 'We had a client who insisted on being first in queue for The Ritz Carlton Residence.' The client later set a new benchmark price of $4,515 psf for the Cairnhill area.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Singapore Property News Upfront 29
At an average of $500ppr, will the revamped DC rates dampen redevelopment?
The government yesterday announced what is possibly the sharpest hikes in development charge (DC) rates, which are payable for enhancing the use of some sites or building bigger projects on them. The Ministry of National Development (MND) cited the rise in market values as the reason for the increases.
On average, the DC rate for non-landed residential use was raised by 58 per cent and that for commercial use by 42 per cent. The average DC rate was also increased 23 per cent for hotel use, 11 per cent for landed residential use, and 2 per cent for industrial or warehouse use. But the escalations were much bigger in certain locations - as high as 112.1 per cent for non-landed residential use in the Everton/Spottiswoode Park vicinity and 104.5 per cent for commercial use in the Maxwell Road/Telok Ayer St and Anson Road areas, based on Jones Lang LaSalle's analysis.
The latest increases, which take effect today, are in addition to the 40 per cent across-the-board appreciation in DC rates announced on July 18 arising from a change in formula for computing DC. While yesterday's increases look steep, they did not surprise most market watchers given the substantial appreciation in land values over the past six months.
As to whether the latest hikes will further slow en bloc sales, which have decelerated lately as developers become more cautious about land-banking amid the stock market rout and credit tightening fears, property agents offered a range of views. Credo Real Estate's managing director Karamjit Singh estimates that probably only about 20 to 30 per cent of all collective sale sites have substantial DC components amounting to 10 per cent or more of total land value. 'For many of these sites with high DC component, the increase may have been anticipated and priced in, so things can move on. For those that haven't, their progress for an en bloc sale could be affected if owners are unwilling to lower their price expectations.'
Jones Lang LaSalle's regional director and head of investments Lui Seng Fatt too said: 'Despite the stellar increases in DC rates, the impact of the DC hike on en bloc residential developments remains marginal on most sites, especially freehold sites. Some leasehold sites with substantial DC components, however, may feel the heat.' CB Richard Ellis executive director Li Hiaw Ho said the hikes will to 'a small extent, slow down collective sales'. 'Coupled with homeowners' expectations of high prices for their properties, developers might not be as aggressive in acquiring sites,' he added.
Colliers International's director for research and consultancy Tay Huey Ying said two rounds of DC hikes in July and September, and global credit tightening, will likely lead to more cautious bidding by developers and more realistic price expectations by sellers. Ms Tay said that increases in land prices may not be as phenomenal in the coming six months compared with the past six months. 'But demand for development land should stay healthy as the end-market for residential property is expected to remain healthy on the back of strong economic prospects,' she added.
Analysts noted that in any case, the supply of collective sale sites will slow due to impending changes to en bloc sale rules requiring more safeguards and procedures. DC is specified according to use groups and is listed by 118 geographical sectors or locations across Singapore. The 112% hike in non-landed residential DC rates in the Everton/Spottiswoode Park area was attributed by most analysts to the Spottiswoode Apartment and Oakswood Heights collective sales in April and June at $732 psf per plot ratio and $740 psf ppr respectively - more than twice the land value of $307 psf ppr implied by the July '07 DC rate for the location.
And the DC rate hikes of 107.5 per cent each in the Newton/Surrey/Lincoln roads and River Valley/Jalan Mutiara areas were attributed to the collective sales of Lincoln Lodge for $1,449 psf ppr, and Bishopswalk for $1,544 psf ppr respectively, which are about three times the $492 psf ppr land value implied by the July '07 DC rate for the locations.
The Maxwell Road and Anson Road areas topped the increases for commercial use with gains of 104.5 per cent each, likely due to prices achieved at two recent state tenders for commercial sites at Anson Road. The same two locations also recorded the biggest increases in hotel use rates, at 66.7 per cent each, and again, this was probably due to two hotel sites at Gopeng Street and Tras Street sold by the state at significantly higher land values than implied by July DC rates.
As for industrial DC rates, the highest increase of 15.8 per cent was for the Pasir Panjang/Science Park area, followed by 11.1 per cent hikes in 15 other locations including Henderson Industrial Park, Bukit Merah View, Redhill and Hoy Fatt Rd/Alexandra Road, according to JLL's analysis.
Source: Business Times, 1 Sept 2007
Posted by Property Wizkid
Buying office building: Chevron House leads the pack at $2,780psf. That’s $730m for 81 yrs lease!
CapitaLand and its partners have sold stakes in Chevron House (formerly known as Caltex House) at Raffles Place in a deal that valued the leasehold office block at $730 million or $2,780 per square foot of net lettable area. This sets a new record for an entire office building, surpassing the $2,650 psf set earlier this year for the freehold 1 Finlayson Green. Chevron House stands on a site with a remaining lease of about 81 years.
Market watchers are wondering if a new record price will soon be achieved, possibly for Hitachi Tower next to Chevron House and in which CapitaLand also has a 50 per cent stake. The 999-year leasehold Hitachi Tower, which faces Collyer Quay, was earlier reported to have attracted a top bid of $3,200 psf of net lettable area, following an expression of interest exercise.
However, industry talk now is that negotiations with the top bidder may have met with some hitches - although it is suggested that this does not necessarily mean the deal is off. 'It could just mean that negotiations may now be open with the other bidders,' one observer said. When contacted, a CapitaLand spokeswoman said: 'The owners of Hitachi Tower are negotiating with several parties to divest their interests, and we will make the appropriate announcement if any definitive agreement has been signed.' CapitaLand owns Hitachi Tower jointly with National University of Singapore.
The property giant declined to identify the party to whom it and its partners have sold their stakes in Chevron House. But it is believed to be a foreign fund. 'Globally, in the real estate investment market, it is the international funds that are buying, because that's where the capital is being raised. And you have a whole variety of investors - including private equity, savings (including pensions), professional investment groups,' an industry player said. Jones Lang LaSalle is understood to have brokered the sale of Chevron House.
CapitaLand owns a 50 per cent stake in Chevron House, with IP Property Fund Asia and NTUC Income Insurance Co-operative each holding 25 per cent. The three parties own their stakes in Chevron House through Savu Properties Ltd and under yesterday's deal, are selling their stakes in this company. The completion date of the sale is Sept 24. 'Upon completion, CapitaLand will recognise in its group consolidated accounts a gain of approximately $150.8 million,' the group said yesterday.
The average prime office capital value rose 117 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of this year to $2,500 psf, while average monthly Grade A office rental value in Q2 this year was $13.10 psf, up 92.6 per cent from the same period last year, according to CB Richard Ellis data.
Source: Business Times, 31 Aug 2007
Posted by Property Wizkid
Soilbuild pays $6.5m DC for Meyer Road site
SOILBUILD Group Holdings has bought the freehold Margate Mansion off Meyer Road for $58 million through a collective sale. The deal reflects a unit land price of $882 psf per plot ratio including an estimated $6.5 million development charge (DC) based on July 18, 2007 DC rates. Provisional permission for a new development has not been obtained, so the $6.5 million estimated DC quantum has not been locked in.
Soilbuild will have to pay DC based on Sept 1, 2007 rates, which most market watchers say will shoot up in tandem with sharp gains in residential land values over the past six months. Asked why Soilbuild announced a deal just a day before the latest DC rates are announced, the group's executive director Low Soon Sim said: 'We have factored in a 20 per cent rise in DC rates for the area come Sept 1, and we see the potential of the area. This is a District 15 site located in the much sought-after Meyer Road residential enclave.'
Margate Mansion's collective sale, which is subject to approval by the Strata Titles Board, was brokered by CB Richard Ellis. The 34,804 sq ft site has a 2.1 plot ratio - the ratio of maximum potential gross floor area to land area. Assuming an average size of 1,500 sq ft per unit, the site can be redeveloped into a new project up to 24 storeys high, with a total of 48 units, Soilbuild said in a statement yesterday. The project may be launched towards the end of next year.
Separately, the Urban Redevelopment Authority launched a tender yesterday for a 5.13-hectare industrial site in Sin Ming Lane. The land has a 2.5 plot ratio and is being sold on 60-year leasehold tenure. Colliers International director (industrial) Tan Boon Leong reckons the top bid is likely to be in the $60 psf per plot ratio range. This would translate to a breakeven cost of $230-250 psf for the completed development.
'If a developer wants to maximise profit, he will build a ramp-up development,' Mr Tan said. The site is zoned for Business 1 use and can be used for clean and light industrial use. It is within the established Sin Ming Industrial Estate. The tender for the site, which is on the confirmed list of the Government Industrial Land Sale Programme, closes on Oct 24.
Source: Business Times, 31 Aug 2007
Posted by Property Wizkid
The eagerly awaited Alexandra condo site is now up for tender
The Urban Redevelopment Authority yesterday asked for tenders for a 99-year leasehold residential plot at Alexandra Road, close to the Redhill MRT station and opposite the Metropolitan, after receiving a minimum bid price that triggered the launch from the Reserve List. The site occupies some 8,559 square metres with a gross plot ratio of 4.9, which can generate a maximum permissible gross floor area of 41,939 square metres. It is zoned for development of condominium or serviced apartments. Property consultancies said the site could be developed into a 40-storey condominium.
Knight Frank managing director Tan Tiong Cheng said that he expects the project to have some 380 units averaging 1,200 square feet in size, given that its height and plot ratio are similar to those of the Metropolitan - a joint project between CapitaLand and Lippo Group. Mr Tan reckons that bids for the site could have been in the region of $400 per square feet per plot ratio (psf ppr) or a lump sum of $180 million and expects the units to fetch average prices of $950-1,000 psf when they are put on the market, given that units in the nearby Metropolitan are fetching some $924 psf in resale prices in the third quarter. CB Richard Ellis executive director Li Hiaw Ho estimates that the site could have drawn bids in a higher range of $650-750 psf ppr. 'This will translate to an average selling price of between $1,200 psf and $1,300 psf, which could be attainable in the second half of 2008,' he said, expecting strong demand to come from upgraders and investors who are looking to rent out the units given its proximity to the city and amenities.
In comparison, the Metropolitan site was purchased by the developers at $350 psf ppr in November 2005. Based on the strong demand seen in Metropolitan where all 382 units were sold within six months, market watchers said that they expect the Alexandra site to draw strong interest from developers given that it is located at the fringe of the established Tanglin housing district which is within a five to 10 minute drive to Orchard Road, the Central Business District, Marina Bay, and the southern waterfront area.
Yesterday, the Housing & Development Board invited tenders for the sale of a commercial site at Toa Payoh Lorong 6, under the Confirmed List of the Government Land Sales Programme. The 99-year leasehold site has a land area of 1,396.8 square metres with maximum allowable gross floor area of 4,190.4 square metres, and is located near the HDB Hub. Its tender will close on Oct 16 and the project is expected to be completed by 66 months from the date of tender acceptance.
Mr Li from CBRE estimates that the site could yield about 34,000 square feet of net lettable area of commercial space and can be developed for a variety of uses including retail, F&B, office and entertainment facilities such as cinemas, bowling alleys and fitness centres. 'It is likely that the successful bidder would devote 100 per cent of the maximum gross floor area for retail use, so as to tap on the large population catchment within the Toa Payoh housing estate as well as workers and visitors at HDB Hub,' he added. 'We expect bids to range between $600 and $700 psf ppr. Assuming that the mall is able to fetch a monthly rent of about $7-9 psf per month, this would provide the developer with a stabilised yield of about 5.5-6 per cent.'
Source: Business Times, 30 August 2007
Posted by Property Wizkid
LaSalle offers $237.2m for office plot next to International Plaza
LASALLE Investment Management (LIM) was the top bidder yesterday for a 99-year leasehold commercial plot next to International Plaza, with a bid of $237.2 million or $941 psf of potential gross floor area. LIM, which bid on behalf of its LaSalle Asia Opportunity III Fund, is planning a 20-storey office development with about 200,000 sq ft net lettable area. 'It'll be a Grade A, 'Gold Standard' building,' said LIM regional director Andrew Heithersay.
LIM managing director (Asia Pacific) Ian Mackie said: 'We may or may not take a joint venture partner for the development.' The office development, near Tanjong Pagar MRT station, will target occupiers looking for cheaper accommodation close to downtown, he added. The project may be completed around late 2009.
LIM's top bid for the 27,281 sq ft plot was 7.8 per cent lower than the $1,021 psf per plot ratio that Mapletree Investments paid for a bigger site across the road last month. The price was lower as the latest site is 'inferior in shape and size, resulting in an office development with a much smaller floor plate of around 12,000 sq ft - compared with 22,000 sq ft for the earlier site - as well as lower efficiency', said an analyst.
A Mapletree unit was the second highest bidder at yesterday's tender, at $800 psf ppr - 15 per cent below LIM's price. The only other bidder, Wing Tai, offered $634 psf ppr. CB Richard Ellis estimates that LIM's bid reflects a break-even cost of $1,700-1,800 psf. 'This would provide the successful bidder with a stabilised yield of around 4.5 to 5.0 per cent, based on a gross monthly rent of $9 to $10 psf,' it said.
However, industry sources suggest LIM is looking at a $13 psf average monthly rent. The Anson Road site will be the maiden Singapore investment for the LaSalle Asia Opportunity III Fund, which is planning to make about US$12 billion worth of acquisitions over the next three to four years. 'Singapore remains one of our primary target markets. We're interested in all sectors - office, retail, industrial, residential and hotel,' Mr Heithersay said.
Earlier acquisitions here by LIM for its other funds include the collective sale of Rainbow Gardens at Toh Tuck Road, and Swissotel Merchant Court hotel, as well as stakes in two hotels opening next year - Crowne Plaza Changi Airport and Ibis Bencoolen Street. LIM, part of the Jones Lang LaSalle group and a leading real estate money management firm, yesterday also announced an A$738 million (S$926 million) acquisition, on behalf of Asia Property Fund, of a 50 per cent stake in the Westfield Doncaster mall development in Melbourne.
Source: Business Times, 29 Aug 2007
Posted by Property Wizkid
5 Days cooling off period in case you change your mind – that’s what the Law says for en bloc sellers
Proposed changes to the law will make the en bloc sale process more transparent and include safeguards to ensure that the various stakeholders get a fair deal. Sales committees will have to be properly formed and elected. Collective sales agreements (CSAs) will be witnessed by lawyers who can clarify doubts and explain terms and liabilities. Even after they sign, potential sellers will have a five-day 'cooling-off period' during which they can change their minds. Even the definition of majority consent has been tweaked.
In the immediate future the changes, which are expected to become law in early October, could serve as a catalyst to speed up the signing of CSAs, says CB Richard Ellis executive director Jeremy Lake. 'Otherwise it appears that everything may have to be unwound and the process restarted under the new law,' he added. But in the longer term, the pace at which en bloc sites have been galloping into the market may slow. This is largely because new rules and procedures - including how sales committees conduct their business - mean it could take a longer time to launch a site for sale. However, the pace of collective sale deals sealed will still depend largely on market conditions, reckons Credo Real Estate managing director Karamjit Singh, who welcomed the spirit of the changes that promote greater transparency.
Law firm Rodyk & Davidson's partner Norman Ho said lawyers' fees for collective sales, usually $3,000 to $4,000 per unit, could double or triple because of the extra work involved - primarily because lawyers will now be required to witness signatures and certify the monthly updates on the consent level. 'This will also aggravate the current shortage of en bloc sale lawyers,' Mr Ho reckons.
Agreeing, Credo's Mr Singh said requiring lawyers to witness signatures will 'create a bottleneck in the process'. Like many in the industry, Mr Ho questioned the need to get lawyers to witness signatures, especially since a cooling-off period is also being introduced. A key amendment is an additional requirement for the definition of majority consent for en bloc sale, to be based on the area of the units in the development.
The existing condition, that requires consent from owners controlling at least 80 or 90 per cent of a development's share value - depending on whether it is more than 10 years old or less, respectively - will still apply. But a second condition will now require consent from owners of units that form 80 or 90 per cent of area in the development - again depending on its age.
This is different from the Ministry of Law's earlier proposal in March, which had sought to peg the second condition of consent on 80 or 90 per cent of the number of units owned in the development. Feedback showed that basing the second requirement on area will mitigate bias against residential owners in a mixed development - who typically have lower share values. At the same time, the requirement would not work against commercial unit owners, especially those whose units have much larger floor areas.
Another big section in the Land Titles (Strata) (Amendment) Bill tabled for first reading in Parliament yesterday by Deputy Prime Minister and Law Minister Prof S Jayakumar governs the formation, composition, constitution and proceedings of en bloc sales committees. A sales committee will have to be elected by more than 50 per cent of owners present at a general meeting of the management corporation before signing of the CSA may begin. Eligibility criteria of committee members are listed and the sales committee will have to convene general meetings to consider key issues such as the appointment of the property consultant and lawyer, apportionment of sales proceeds and the terms and conditions of the CSA.
The sales committee will also have to provide monthly updates - instead of every eight-weekly currently - of the consent level, to keep owners better informed. Every launch for sale must be through a public exercise like a tender or auction. However, the sales committee can engage in follow-up negotiations with any bidder, especially if the tender/auction fails to achieve the desired price. But a sale by private treaty must be concluded within 10 weeks of the close of the tender/auction. Otherwise, the tender will have to be relaunched for sales efforts to resume. Credo's Mr Singh welcomed the 10-week deadline, saying it 'instils discipline as the market has shown itself to be very dynamic'. 'In fast-moving markets, private treaty negotiations do not give you comfort that you are dealing with the best buyer. But a tender does, because you are inviting more participants to the negotiating process rather than limiting yourself to one or two,' he added.
A MinLaw spokesperson said: 'The proposed amendments to the Land Titles (Strata) Act are to provide additional safeguards and to ensure more transparency for all owners, that is, the minority and majority owners, but in a way that does not make it unduly onerous to bring about an en bloc sale.'
Source: Business Times, 28 Aug 2007
Posted by Property Wizkid
Amendment to Land Titles (Strata) Act extended for en bloc sale by majority consent to five more developments
A proposed amendment to the Land Titles (Strata) Act will extend en bloc sale by majority consent to five developments not covered by current legislation - Goldhill Plaza, Goldhill Shopping Centre, Katong Plaza, Roxy Square Shopping Centre and Bukit Timah Shopping Centre.
Strata title certificates were issued for the projects but the original landowner/developer retained the title certificates and instead gave long leases - at least 850 years - to buyers of units. Owners of such units can only do an en bloc sale with unanimous consent - and the approval of the original developer, who owns the reversionary interest in the property.
But the ministry of law proposes to allow them to proceed with an en bloc sale by majority consent. And the original developer's consent will not be required, because if the Strata Titles Board approves an en bloc sale, he will lose all rights to the land.
Source: Business Times, 28 Aug 2007
Posted by Property Wizkid
S'pore still cheaper than HK & Tokyo but can we compare?
Despite rising property costs and wages, Singapore remains cheaper than regional global cities such as Hong Kong and Tokyo, Trade and Industry Minister Lim Hng Kiang has said. He quoted studies which showed that Singapore remains cheaper than other global cities in the region. A survey on global office market rentals by consultants CB Richard Ellis showed that Singapore was 30 per cent cheaper than Hong Kong, and 50 to 60 per cent cheaper than Tokyo.
Mr Lim cautioned however: "'We have to maintain vigilance over our costs, as excessive cost increases will dampen our growth prospects." He was speaking in Parliament yesterday and addressing MPs' concerns about the impact of rising business costs on the Republic's economic competitiveness. Citing as examples London and New York, which are thriving hubs despite their high costs, Mr Lim said "competitiveness is more than offering low costs alone", but also about value creation. This empowers Singapore with attributes that economies in the region cannot easily replicate, such as its livability. Mr Lim also pointed out that in the past three years, the consumer price index has increased at an annual rate of 1 per cent, while overall unit labour cost actually declined at an annual average rate of 2.2 per cent. "However, in recent quarters, we have seen increases in property prices and rentals, as well as wages," he added. He cited recent moves to release land for temporary office space as well as provide more public flats for rental.
The Ministry of National Development (MND) also released additional information on property prices and rents 'to allow the public and businesses to make more informed decisions on property purchases and rentals'. The Government is also looking at ways to help more Singaporeans capitalize on the strong employment market and rejoin the workforce. Addressing media reports of "sky-high" office rentals, Mr Lim said although the median prime office rent in the second quarter was $9.50 per sq ft per month, the median rent in other locations, accounting for about 80 per cent of office space here, was less than half of that.
Source: Asia One, 27 August 2007
Posted by Property Wizkid
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